The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Exeter City v Crewe Alexandra

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Exeter City 2–0 Crewe Alexandra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Exeter City (Local)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.04%36.43%36.37%38.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.502.6741.67%39.68%40.00%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crewe Alexandra (Visit)

Prediction 33.64%2.97fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -0.572%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.46%33.63%33.65%35.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.752.9439.22%36.35%36.36%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.95%3.34fair odd
EV +0.017%
Edge +0.005%
Kelly +0.007%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.01%29.93%29.97%31.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.153.3434.48%31.90%31.75%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Exeter City (Local): 36.42%; Crewe Alexandra (Visit): 33.64%; Draw: 29.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.339. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.340, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.017%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.83%EV -7.50%E -2.95%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.17%EV -10.53%E -3.96%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.01%EV +0.017%E +0.005%K +0.007%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 18:44
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.04%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.14%EV -3.47%E -1.21%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -1.18%E -0.358%K -0.513%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.82%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -1.18%E -0.358%K -0.513%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 11:00
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -1.18%E -0.358%K -0.513%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 11:00
picklebet_au🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-20 18:25
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 18:25
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 18:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -5.82%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 13:25
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:10
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -9.68%E -3.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 07:05
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -2.68%E -0.824%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.18%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -4.18%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 18:43
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -4.18%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 18:44
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -4.18%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 11:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -4.18%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 11:00
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -4.18%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 11:00
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:44
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:44
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-19 07:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.39%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.49%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-19 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.39%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.49%EV -5.67%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-19 07:05
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.82%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.38%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -2.46%E -0.847%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 18:15
BetUS🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.89%EV -2.76%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.59%EV -1.11%E -0.378%K -0.572%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.52%EV -8.97%E -2.95%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.80%EV -5.48%E -1.95%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.32%EV -8.97%E -2.95%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-20 10:40
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -3.13%E -1.18%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.59%EV -1.45%E -0.494%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.51%EV -9.27%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -3.13%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 18:20
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -5.82%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 18:20
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.58%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 18:30
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.58%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 18:30
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 18:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.50%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 18:20
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -10.16%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-20 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -3.13%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.58%EV -11.36%E -3.84%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -3.13%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.58%EV -11.36%E -3.84%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -5.82%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -11.66%E -3.95%K -5.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.04%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.38%EV -14.23%E -5.58%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.58%EV -11.66%E -3.95%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -5.82%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 18:30
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.97%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.78%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.25%0.0%2026-10-20 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.70%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.17%0.3%2026-10-20 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.70%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.17%0.3%2026-10-20 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.70%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.17%0.3%2026-10-20 18:25
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-10-20 18:25