The School of Odds
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Crewe Alexandra v Rochdale

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Crewe Alexandra 3–2 Rochdale

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Crewe Alexandra (Local)

Prediction 48.68%2.05fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -5.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.01%48.81%48.52%50.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.901.9555.56%52.90%52.49%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochdale (Visit)

Prediction 24.72%4.05fair odd
EV +1.10%
Edge +0.268%
Kelly +0.355%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%24.59%24.79%25.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.743.704.0928.17%26.72%27.03%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.60%3.76fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.793%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.60%26.69%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.503.6530.77%28.79%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Crewe Alexandra (Local): 48.68%; Rochdale (Visit): 24.72%; Draw: 26.60%. For Rochdale (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.22%EV -5.56%E -2.87%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.35%EV +1.10%E +0.268%K +0.355%G +0.004%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.44%EV -7.42%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 13:40
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.28%EV -6.05%E -3.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.31%EV +0.849%E +0.208%K +0.276%G +0.002%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.41%EV -7.68%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 13:40
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -8.97%E -4.80%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.13%E -0.282%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 08:38
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -8.97%E -4.80%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.13%E -0.282%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -1.13%E -0.282%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:40
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.60%E -0.923%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 13:35
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.00%EV -8.00%E -4.23%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 23.93%EV -4.34%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -9.01%E -2.64%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.20%EV -8.97%E -4.80%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -4.84%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.90%EV -9.01%E -2.64%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 13:45
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:35
Sky Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -7.51%E -3.95%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -2.90%E -0.793%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 07:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 11:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.02%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:55
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.02%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:35
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%EV -7.02%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -10.88%E -3.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 13:55
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 13:45
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -6.05%E -3.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.08%EV -5.56%E -2.87%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:35
Neds🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.08%EV -5.56%E -2.87%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:35
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -6.54%E -3.41%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:45
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -7.02%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -7.31%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:40
picklebet_au🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:39
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.54%E -3.41%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.56%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:39
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -6.54%E -3.41%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:40
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -6.54%E -3.41%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:40
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:45
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 13:45
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -10.88%E -3.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.40%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 07:15
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.54%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-12 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.49%EV -11.89%E -6.57%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.54%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-13 07:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.49%EV -11.89%E -6.57%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.54%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-13 07:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -7.02%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 13:45
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.06%EV -8.00%E -4.23%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 13:35
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 13:45
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -4.23%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 10:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -7.02%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -12.25%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-10-17 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-10-17 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-10-17 13:40
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-10-17 13:50
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.41%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.76%2.4%2026-10-17 13:55