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Crewe Alexandra v Bristol Rovers

2026-10-03 14:00 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Crewe Alexandra (Local)

Prediction 32.38%3.09fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.57%32.55%32.32%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.852.9337.04%35.43%35.09%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bristol Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 40.67%2.46fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.03%40.40%40.72%41.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.262.3545.45%43.93%44.25%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.12%27.06%26.96%27.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.443.453.6030.30%29.06%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Crewe Alexandra (Local): 32.38%; Bristol Rovers (Visit): 40.67%; Draw: 26.95%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -2.98%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.11%EV -5.14%E -1.75%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.08%EV -6.86%E -2.99%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.80%EV -5.41%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 16:00
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.11%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.48%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-26 16:10
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.11%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.48%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-26 16:14
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -6.75%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.45%E -2.80%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.98%E -0.828%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 16:15
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.28%EV -7.08%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -7.26%E -3.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.09%EV -7.83%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 17:08
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -7.73%E -2.71%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.45%E -2.80%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -2.98%E -0.828%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 16:15
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.73%E -2.71%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.45%E -2.80%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-26 16:15
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -7.73%E -2.71%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.48%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 19:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%EV -7.73%E -2.71%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.75%EV -8.08%E -3.57%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.93%EV -7.83%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 17:05
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -7.73%E -2.71%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.48%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 17:10
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -9.34%E -3.34%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 16:35
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -9.34%E -3.34%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -8.48%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 16:35
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.48%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 16:15
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.48%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 16:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -12.58%E -4.66%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.03%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-26 16:35
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -12.58%E -4.66%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.52%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-26 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 33.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.70%16.5%2026-09-26 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-26 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-26 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-09-26 16:45