The School of Odds
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Crawley Town v Tranmere Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Final: Crawley Town 1–1 Tranmere Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Crawley Town (Local)

Prediction 35.65%2.80fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.97%35.56%35.71%36.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.612.622.7540.00%38.33%38.17%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tranmere Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 37.54%2.66fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.26%37.57%37.49%39.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.6043.48%40.94%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -0.830%
Edge -0.224%
Kelly -0.307%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.33%26.87%26.80%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.403.7031.25%29.47%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Crawley Town (Local): 35.65%; Tranmere Rovers (Visit): 37.54%; Draw: 26.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.830%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -1.95%E -0.710%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 14:20
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -3.73%E -1.38%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -2.39%E -0.918%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 11:45
Pinnacle🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -4.26%E -1.67%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -3.51%E -0.975%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 13:50
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.90%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.26%E -1.67%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 07:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.51%E -0.975%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -4.26%E -1.67%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 11:44
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:07
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:30
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.63%EV -6.23%E -2.37%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.04%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -0.830%E -0.224%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 12:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.12%EV -6.23%E -2.37%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.49%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 13:50
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -6.23%E -2.37%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-19 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.00%EV -6.23%E -2.37%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -11.77%E -5.01%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -14.23%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-19 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.00%EV -6.23%E -2.37%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -11.77%E -5.01%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -14.23%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-19 14:20
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.59%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 13:40
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.59%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.59%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 07:49
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.59%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 07:50
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.59%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 13:40
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.59%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 13:39
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.59%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 12:07
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.51%E -0.975%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 13:40
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 07:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 13:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 13:40
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:35
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 13:40
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 11:45
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 13:55
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 12:06
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 13:55
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 13:41
1xBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.82%EV -8.37%E -3.26%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.27%EV -7.27%E -2.94%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.92%EV -8.33%E -2.44%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.82%EV -8.37%E -3.26%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.27%EV -7.27%E -2.94%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.92%EV -8.33%E -2.44%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 13:40
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -9.08%E -3.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 07:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.08%E -3.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.65%EV -7.27%E -2.94%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.85%EV -12.89%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 11:45
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -9.08%E -3.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.27%EV -11.77%E -5.01%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 13:55
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.02%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 02:24
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 13:35
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:50
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -10.65%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 13:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-10-24 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-10-24 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-10-24 13:45
Matchbook◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-10-24 13:50
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.16%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.26%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.58%1.7%2026-10-24 13:55

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