The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Colchester United v Port Vale

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Colchester United (Local)

Prediction 35.65%2.81fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.74%35.60%35.74%36.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.612.622.6840.00%38.37%38.24%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Vale (Visit)

Prediction 36.87%2.71fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.71%36.79%36.76%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.552.6341.67%39.36%39.22%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.48%3.64fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.98%27.61%27.50%29.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.303.5032.79%30.28%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Colchester United (Local): 35.65%; Port Vale (Visit): 36.87%; Draw: 27.48%. For Port Vale (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -3.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.13%EV -4.46%E -1.66%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.81%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.21%EV -4.93%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-26 16:00
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:20
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:19
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:19
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:19
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:20
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.53%E -2.09%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -9.66%E -3.94%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 19:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.34%EV -6.24%E -2.37%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.34%EV -3.02%E -1.15%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.31%EV -3.83%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-30 14:00
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -6.60%E -2.52%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -3.83%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-28 04:29
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.60%E -2.52%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -9.66%E -3.94%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-28 14:05
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.60%E -2.52%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -9.66%E -3.94%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-28 14:05
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.30%EV -6.96%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.45%EV -9.29%E -3.78%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.26%EV -7.13%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-27 04:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.31%E -2.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-29 09:29
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.31%E -2.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.13%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-29 09:30
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.31%E -2.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-28 04:30
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.31%E -2.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -7.81%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 16:01
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.31%E -2.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.66%E -3.94%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 16:05
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -7.31%E -2.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -9.66%E -3.94%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -7.96%E -2.37%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-27 00:42
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -7.31%E -2.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -7.81%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -14.82%E -4.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-29 09:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.66%EV -8.02%E -3.11%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.94%EV -5.60%E -2.19%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.40%EV -10.98%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-29 09:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -9.09%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-26 16:00
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -9.09%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-29 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -9.09%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -5.97%E -2.34%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-29 09:30
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -9.09%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -11.50%E -4.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-28 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -9.09%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.71%EV -7.81%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -16.20%E -5.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-29 09:19
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -7.81%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -7.96%E -2.37%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-29 09:30
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.81%E -3.13%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-30 14:18
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.16%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.45%EV -8.55%E -3.45%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.33%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.33%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.33%167.9%2026-09-28 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.33%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.33%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.33%167.9%2026-09-28 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-28 14:25
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33%191.3%2026-09-28 06:40