The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chesterfield FC v Crewe Alexandra

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Final: Chesterfield FC 5–1 Crewe Alexandra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chesterfield FC (Local)

Prediction 52.37%1.91fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.38%52.66%52.24%56.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.761.8761.73%57.40%56.82%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crewe Alexandra (Visit)

Prediction 22.74%4.40fair odd
EV +8.01%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.171%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.54%22.45%22.87%23.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.154.7526.32%24.14%24.10%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.89%4.02fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.422%
Kelly -0.565%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.50%24.89%24.89%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.713.753.9528.57%26.96%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chesterfield FC (Local): 52.37%; Crewe Alexandra (Visit): 22.74%; Draw: 24.89%. For Crewe Alexandra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.95%EV -14.64%E -8.98%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV +8.01%E +1.69%K +2.13%G +0.171%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.50%EV -1.67%E -0.422%K -0.565%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-20 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -12.02%E -7.16%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV +2.32%E +0.516%K +0.663%G +0.015%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -2.91%E -0.747%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 13:55
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.12%EV -14.12%E -8.61%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.78%EV -1.09%E -0.251%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -15.16%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -1.54%E -0.357%K -0.464%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 13:10
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.13%EV -14.64%E -8.98%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -2.23%E -0.518%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.11%EV -15.16%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -2.23%E -0.518%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.11%EV -15.16%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -2.23%E -0.518%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 13:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 13:34
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 13:45
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -2.91%E -0.747%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 13:35
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -2.91%E -0.747%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 13:40
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.99%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.93%EV -7.39%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 13:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.28%EV -9.40%E -5.44%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.78%EV -7.39%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 13:35
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -12.55%E -7.51%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -13.59%E -8.24%K -20.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -4.50%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.01%EV -4.17%E -2.28%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -5.64%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:35
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -2.07%E -1.11%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.70%EV -5.64%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -2.07%E -1.11%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.70%EV -5.64%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 13:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -2.07%E -1.11%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.70%EV -5.64%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 13:35
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.45%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -4.16%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 13:45
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.13%EV -7.83%E -4.45%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 13:50
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 13:34
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -6.79%E -3.81%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -4.16%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 13:45
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 13:40
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 13:39
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 13:35
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 13:44
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -7.31%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 13:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -7.31%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 13:50
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 13:55
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.20%EV -7.83%E -4.45%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 13:45
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 13:35
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 13:55
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -9.40%E -5.44%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.66%EV -7.83%E -4.45%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -11.62%E -3.27%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 13:49
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%EV -4.69%E -2.58%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -10.18%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 13:50
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%EV -4.69%E -2.58%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -10.18%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 13:50
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.06%EV -7.31%E -4.13%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -12.46%E -3.24%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -11.62%E -3.27%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:50
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.15%EV -8.88%E -5.10%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.42%EV -13.60%E -3.58%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.68%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.94%1.5%2026-10-24 13:55
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 53.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.40%2.5%2026-10-24 13:55

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