The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chesterfield FC v Colchester United

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Chesterfield FC 1–1 Colchester United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chesterfield FC (Local)

Prediction 61.68%1.62fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -5.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.14%61.70%61.64%64.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.501.501.5771.43%66.69%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colchester United (Visit)

Prediction 16.78%5.96fair odd
EV +0.666%
Edge +0.111%
Kelly +0.133%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.04%16.78%16.81%18.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.485.506.0020.00%18.25%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.54%4.64fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.437%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.23%21.52%21.55%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.254.254.5525.00%23.55%23.53%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chesterfield FC (Local): 61.68%; Colchester United (Visit): 16.78%; Draw: 21.54%. For Colchester United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.96. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.666%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +0.666%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 18:34
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +0.666%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -11.18%E -7.76%K -25.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV +0.666%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -13.65%E -9.75%K -34.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV +0.666%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 18:40
BetUS🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.01%EV -6.86%E -4.54%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.07%EV -0.676%E -0.114%K -0.137%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -1.99%E -0.437%K -0.561%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 18:40
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.94%EV -6.86%E -4.54%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 16.08%EV -0.844%E -0.143%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.98%EV -2.42%E -0.534%K -0.686%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.01%EV -9.94%E -6.81%K -21.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -1.01%E -0.172%K -0.207%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 18:25
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.86%EV -6.86%E -4.54%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.03%EV -8.67%E -2.04%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 18:44
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.97%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -3.53%E -0.614%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-20 18:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.12%EV -6.24%E -4.11%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -3.53%E -0.614%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.46%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-20 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.12%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -3.53%E -0.614%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.38%EV -6.24%E -4.11%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -6.05%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.17%EV -8.71%E -5.89%K -18.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -6.05%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 18:20
picklebet_au🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.98%EV -4.39%E -2.83%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.83%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.20%EV -5.01%E -3.25%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 18:20
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.07%E -0.682%K -0.876%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.67%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.67%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-20 12:49
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 12:49
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 18:20
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.84%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:20
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.84%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.84%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.84%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -11.18%E -7.76%K -25.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -3.07%E -0.682%K -0.876%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.83%EV -9.33%E -6.35%K -19.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 18:30
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.16%EV -10.56%E -7.28%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-20 18:20
LeoVegas🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -6.24%E -4.11%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.22%EV -9.40%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 18:20
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.40%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-20 18:20
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.40%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-20 18:20
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.01%EV -6.86%E -4.54%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -9.40%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 18:34
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.81%EV -8.09%E -5.43%K -16.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 12:50
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.97%EV -8.71%E -5.89%K -18.15%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.02%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.01%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 12:49
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -3.16%E -2.01%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -11.92%E -2.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -3.07%E -0.682%K -0.876%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-20 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.70%EV -4.39%E -2.83%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -11.92%E -2.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 18:20
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -8.71%E -5.89%K -18.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -11.92%E -2.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -9.33%E -6.35%K -19.85%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -11.92%E -2.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -9.33%E -6.35%K -19.85%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -11.92%E -2.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -4.39%E -2.83%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -12.76%E -2.45%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 18:20
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -4.39%E -2.83%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -12.76%E -2.45%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.29%EV -6.86%E -4.54%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -12.76%E -2.45%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:20
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.31%EV -5.01%E -3.25%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -16.11%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-20 18:18
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -7.48%E -4.98%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -16.11%E -3.22%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.48%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.70%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.82%0.1%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.63%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%0.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.63%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%0.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.63%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%0.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.06%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%1.4%2026-10-20 18:40