The School of Odds
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Cheltenham Town v Newport County

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 11:30 UTC

Final: Cheltenham Town 1–0 Newport County

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cheltenham Town (Local)

Prediction 36.74%2.72fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%36.97%36.72%40.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.462.502.6244.44%40.63%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newport County (Visit)

Prediction 35.83%2.79fair odd
EV +0.317%
Edge +0.113%
Kelly +0.176%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.13%35.59%35.78%36.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.622.622.8040.82%38.16%38.17%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.43%3.65fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.476%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.44%27.51%28.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.353.6031.25%29.90%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cheltenham Town (Local): 36.74%; Newport County (Visit): 35.83%; Draw: 27.43%. For Newport County (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.317%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -13.66%E -5.81%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV +0.317%E +0.113%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 10:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 11:15
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:30
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:30
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:30
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:29
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -17.34%E -7.71%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 11:16
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -16.24%E -7.12%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 10:46
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -17.34%E -7.71%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 10:46
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -17.34%E -7.71%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 10:46
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.72%EV -8.89%E -3.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.17%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 11:16
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.72%EV -8.89%E -3.58%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.17%EV -4.70%E -1.77%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 11:16
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -6.32%E -2.48%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -1.24%E -0.344%K -0.476%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:16
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -6.32%E -2.48%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 11:16
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.94%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 11:15
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.94%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 11:16
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -9.99%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -10.84%E -3.34%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 11:16
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -5.77%E -2.20%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -3.98%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 11:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -9.99%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.84%EV -5.77%E -2.20%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 11:16
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -3.98%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 11:16
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.69%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 11:24
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.69%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 11:24
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -3.74%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 10:46
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -3.74%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 10:46
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.32%E -2.48%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -3.98%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 11:16
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:54
picklebet_au🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 11:16
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 11:15
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 11:25
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -9.99%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 11:25
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -9.99%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -12.21%E -3.82%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 11:20
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 10:55
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 10:46
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 10:46
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -6.32%E -2.48%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -10.84%E -3.34%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 11:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -12.21%E -3.82%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 11:16
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -11.83%E -4.93%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 11:25
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -6.32%E -2.48%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.28%EV -9.00%E -3.54%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.59%EV -8.37%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 10:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -6.32%E -2.48%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.28%EV -9.00%E -3.54%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.59%EV -8.37%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 10:46
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 11:05
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 10:50
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 11:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 11:16
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.47%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 11:16
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -12.22%E -4.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -12.21%E -3.82%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 10:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.20%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.11%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.69%0.3%2026-10-24 11:25
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-10-24 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.06%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.97%0.7%2026-10-24 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.06%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.97%0.7%2026-10-24 11:25
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.02%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-10-24 11:25