The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cheltenham Town v Fleetwood Town

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:44 UTC

Final: Cheltenham Town 4–2 Fleetwood Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cheltenham Town (Local)

Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.359%
Kelly -0.511%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.38%29.49%29.41%31.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.103.3534.48%32.09%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fleetwood Town (Visit)

Prediction 43.56%2.30fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.73%43.62%43.70%46.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.142.152.2051.81%46.75%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.596%
Kelly -0.823%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%26.89%26.89%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.413.403.6330.77%29.32%29.41%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cheltenham Town (Local): 29.49%; Fleetwood Town (Visit): 43.56%; Draw: 26.95%. For Cheltenham Town (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -1.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -1.20%E -0.359%K -0.511%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.16%EV -8.10%E -3.84%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.40%EV -2.70%E -0.749%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 18:20
BetUS🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.67%EV -1.50%E -0.448%K -0.639%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.95%EV -7.23%E -3.39%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.38%EV -2.16%E -0.596%K -0.823%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 18:40
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -12.89%E -6.44%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -2.97%E -0.826%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 17:52
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -10.71%E -5.22%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -10.71%E -5.22%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -10.71%E -5.22%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -15.94%E -8.26%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 17:50
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 28.86%EV -5.33%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.49%EV -7.23%E -3.39%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -9.71%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 14:40
picklebet_au🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 17:40
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.36%E -2.96%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.32%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-20 14:35
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.36%E -2.96%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:40
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.36%E -2.96%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 18:29
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.36%E -2.96%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.32%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.32%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 17:40
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -7.66%E -3.61%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 17:40
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -7.66%E -3.61%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 17:40
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.71%E -5.22%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 17:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 28.93%EV -6.21%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.60%EV -8.10%E -3.84%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -9.71%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 14:35
Neds🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.71%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.71%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 16:49
LeoVegas🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.36%E -2.96%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.01%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 17:45
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-19 21:10
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 14:10
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.06%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 16:51
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -6.36%E -2.96%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.71%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 18:29
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.06%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 17:40
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.06%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.06%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.06%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 17:40
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -9.40%E -4.52%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -11.06%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 17:40
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.57%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -12.89%E -6.44%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 17:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -10.05%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.07%EV -8.10%E -3.84%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.71%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 17:40
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-20 15:15
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:04
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:04
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:05
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.18%E -1.90%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 21:10
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.36%E -2.96%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-20 15:15
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-19 21:10
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.79%EV -14.47%E -4.99%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.73%EV -6.79%E -3.17%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -12.41%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-20 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.47%E -4.99%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.96%EV -7.66%E -3.61%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -12.41%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-20 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.47%E -4.99%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.96%EV -7.66%E -3.61%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -12.41%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-20 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Matchbook◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-10-20 18:40
Smarkets◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-10-20 18:40