Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bristol Rovers v Barnet

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00 UTC

Final: Bristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bristol Rovers (Local)

Prediction 43.21%2.31fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%43.14%43.28%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.2048.78%46.59%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barnet (Visit)

Prediction 30.50%3.28fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.746%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%30.44%30.54%31.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.013.003.2034.72%33.22%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.29%3.80fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.381%
Kelly -0.519%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%26.43%26.18%28.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.503.7531.25%28.50%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bristol Rovers (Local): 43.21%; Barnet (Visit): 30.50%; Draw: 26.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -1.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:16
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 14:16
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.99%EV -5.37%E -2.45%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.18%EV -4.83%E -1.55%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.83%EV -7.74%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 09:35
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -1.43%E -0.381%K -0.519%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 05:54
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -2.74%E -0.741%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 07:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -2.74%E -0.741%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 06:44
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 05:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 07:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 07:31
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.28%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.51%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 07:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 07:30
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -9.31%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 20:10
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.65%EV -7.88%E -2.61%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.30%EV -7.47%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-05 10:39
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-05 10:39
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-05 10:40
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 06:45
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 07:30
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 07:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -2.39%E -0.746%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -15.89%E -4.96%K -7.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 06:30
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 07:30
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 07:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 07:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 07:30
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.07%EV -7.53%E -3.52%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -11.94%E -3.56%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.19%EV -7.96%E -3.74%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.14%EV -7.47%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-03 15:30
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -8.39%E -3.96%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -13.26%E -4.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-05 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.30%EV -8.39%E -3.96%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.93%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -11.94%E -3.56%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-05 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -1.43%E -0.381%K -0.519%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 08:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -2.74%E -0.741%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-05 14:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 14:30
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-05 07:40
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-05 04:39
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-05 04:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -9.31%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 04:35
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-05 06:45
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.80%EV -10.12%E -4.87%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.89%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-04 23:29
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -12.15%E -4.22%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-04 23:45
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%8.6%2026-10-05 12:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%8.6%2026-10-05 12:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%8.6%2026-10-05 13:35
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 40.42%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.38%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%10.5%2026-10-05 13:35