The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Barnet v Swindon Town

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Barnet 1–3 Swindon Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barnet (Local)

Prediction 63.96%1.56fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -8.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.47%64.02%63.88%65.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.451.441.5072.99%69.20%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Swindon Town (Visit)

Prediction 15.71%6.37fair odd
EV +2.11%
Edge +0.325%
Kelly +0.384%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.50%15.69%15.73%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.825.756.5018.18%17.17%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.33%4.92fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -0.640%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.18%20.29%20.39%21.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.474.504.8023.81%22.35%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barnet (Local): 63.96%; Swindon Town (Visit): 15.71%; Draw: 20.33%. For Swindon Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV +2.11%E +0.325%K +0.384%G +0.008%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 18:30
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV +2.11%E +0.325%K +0.384%G +0.008%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 18:34
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.97%EV -4.69%E -3.15%K -9.58%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.13%EV -1.03%E -0.164%K -0.195%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.90%EV -7.31%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 18:40
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.12%EV -5.33%E -3.60%K -11.11%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.06%EV -1.03%E -0.164%K -0.195%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.81%EV -7.31%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -1.82%E -0.291%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.46%E -0.950%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 18:40
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -1.82%E -0.291%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -3.45%E -0.726%K -0.920%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 17:15
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.46%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -2.43%E -0.507%K -0.640%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-20 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.33%E -3.60%K -11.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -3.45%E -0.726%K -0.920%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.33%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -10.56%E -2.40%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-20 09:25
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 17:15
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -10.45%E -7.46%K -26.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-20 18:30
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -11.73%E -8.50%K -30.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-20 17:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.80%EV -12.37%E -9.03%K -33.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -5.74%E -0.957%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.18%EV -4.46%E -0.950%K -1.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-20 15:05
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.92%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -7.32%E -1.24%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.51%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 22:09
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.92%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -7.32%E -1.24%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.51%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 22:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -6.61%E -4.53%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -7.32%E -1.24%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -10.56%E -2.40%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -6.61%E -4.53%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -7.32%E -1.24%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -10.56%E -2.40%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 18:35
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.10%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.54%EV -7.32%E -1.24%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 18:20
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.46%EV -6.61%E -4.53%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 15.95%EV -8.73%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 22:50
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.26%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -8.89%E -1.53%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -11.99%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:34
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -4.05%E -2.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -2.43%E -0.507%K -0.640%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -4.05%E -2.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 18:35
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -3.45%E -0.726%K -0.920%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-20 08:55
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 18:38
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 22:45
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.06%EV -6.61%E -4.53%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -10.56%E -2.40%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 18:19
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 18:20
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.99%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.99%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -9.67%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.99%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.77%EV -5.33%E -3.60%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 18:35
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.77%EV -5.33%E -3.60%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.57%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 18:40
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.66%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.11%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.23%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 09:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:24
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:25
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:24
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:24
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:25
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.82%EV -8.53%E -5.97%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.14%EV -13.61%E -3.20%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 09:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.83%EV -9.17%E -6.46%K -21.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.93%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -14.63%E -3.48%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 10:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.83%EV -9.17%E -6.46%K -21.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.93%EV -12.03%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -14.63%E -3.48%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 09:25
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -5.33%E -3.60%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.60%E -2.47%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.50%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.60%E -2.47%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -3.45%E -0.726%K -0.920%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 18:25
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -13.60%E -2.47%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -8.53%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 09:25
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.47%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.47%EV -13.60%E -2.47%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.06%EV -12.60%E -2.93%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.05%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Matchbook◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.05%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.56%1.3%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.56%1.3%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.56%1.3%2026-10-20 18:40