The School of Odds
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Accrington Stanley v Northampton Town

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 15:00 UTC

Final: Accrington Stanley 1–1 Northampton Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Accrington Stanley (Local)

Prediction 40.03%2.50fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.509%
Kelly +0.842%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.88%40.09%39.94%42.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.5346.51%43.42%43.48%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northampton Town (Visit)

Prediction 30.58%3.27fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.32%30.54%30.54%32.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.043.053.1635.09%32.89%32.79%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.38%3.40fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -0.921%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%29.37%29.52%31.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.153.3033.33%31.85%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Accrington Stanley (Local): 40.03%; Northampton Town (Visit): 30.58%; Draw: 29.38%. For Accrington Stanley (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 38.00%EV +1.29%E +0.509%K +0.842%G +0.011%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.15%EV -8.56%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -5.39%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV +0.087%E +0.035%K +0.058%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 14:45
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.91%E -0.782%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.57%EV -3.12%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.32%EV -8.86%E -2.97%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.57%EV -3.12%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.32%EV -8.86%E -2.97%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:45
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -3.12%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -12.84%E -4.50%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 14:45
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.71%EV -3.52%E -1.46%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.29%EV -3.36%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.00%EV -6.27%E -1.97%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-31 14:40
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.44%EV -3.52%E -1.46%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.19%EV -9.17%E -3.09%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 14:45
picklebet_au🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -3.92%E -1.63%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -3.92%E -1.63%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 14:45
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -3.92%E -1.63%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 14:45
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -3.92%E -1.63%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 14:45
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.92%E -1.63%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 14:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.51%EV -4.32%E -1.81%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.31%EV -10.09%E -3.43%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 14:45
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -4.72%E -1.98%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:43
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -4.72%E -1.98%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:44
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -5.92%E -2.52%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -3.04%E -0.921%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.04%E -0.921%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.04%E -0.921%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 14:40
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 14:38
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-31 14:45
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:45
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 14:44
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 14:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 14:40
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -7.92%E -3.44%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -12.84%E -4.50%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-31 14:45
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.66%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -6.72%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -6.72%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 14:40
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.92%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 14:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 40.70%EV -10.32%E -4.61%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -6.72%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.41%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 14:40
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -11.92%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -6.72%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.92%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 14:45
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -11.92%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-31 14:39
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.16%EV -12.72%E -5.84%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.42%EV -6.72%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.42%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-31 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -13.12%E -6.05%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -6.72%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -13.12%E -6.05%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -6.72%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 14:40
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -13.93%E -6.48%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -5.19%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 11:35
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -13.93%E -6.48%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.25%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.73%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-10-31 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.90%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.32%1.5%2026-10-31 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.90%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.32%1.5%2026-10-31 14:45
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.29%1.6%2026-10-31 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.72%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.65%2.0%2026-10-31 14:45

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