The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Accrington Stanley v Gillingham

2026-10-17 14:00 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Accrington Stanley (Local)

Prediction 41.57%2.41fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.95%41.67%41.66%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.212.3047.62%45.38%45.35%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gillingham (Visit)

Prediction 31.69%3.16fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.567%
Kelly -0.837%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.40%31.74%31.55%32.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.953.003.1036.36%33.92%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV +0.546%
Edge +0.145%
Kelly +0.198%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.99%26.60%26.79%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.433.403.7630.30%29.11%29.41%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Accrington Stanley (Local): 41.57%; Gillingham (Visit): 31.69%; Draw: 26.74%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.76, producing a positive expected value of +0.546%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.51%EV -8.14%E -3.68%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.51%EV -8.41%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.99%EV +0.546%E +0.145%K +0.198%G +0.001%6.4%2026-10-10 19:20
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -7.30%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 19:13
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -12.71%E -6.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:00
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -12.71%E -6.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -12.71%E -6.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -12.71%E -6.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:00
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.68%E -3.40%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.47%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -1.76%E -0.567%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 17:35
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.47%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 19:35
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -8.73%E -3.03%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.26%E -4.02%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 19:05
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -10.63%E -4.94%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-10 15:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.95%EV -5.64%E -2.49%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -12.85%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 19:09
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.76%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 17:34
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.76%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 19:35
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.76%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%9.3%2026-10-10 19:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%9.3%2026-10-10 19:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 38.03%2.44I 40.98%NM 35.85%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%14.3%2026-10-10 19:45
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 38.64%2.46I 40.65%NM 32.99%2.86I 34.97%NM 28.37%23.2%2026-10-10 19:55