The School of Odds
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Wimbledon v Stevenage

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wimbledon (Local)

Prediction 32.21%3.10fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.18%32.16%32.16%32.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.872.882.9636.36%34.90%34.72%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stevenage (Visit)

Prediction 37.71%2.65fair odd
EV -5.73%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.15%37.80%37.76%39.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.442.452.5042.55%41.07%40.82%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.08%3.32fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.16%30.04%30.08%30.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.2033.33%32.19%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wimbledon (Local): 32.21%; Stevenage (Visit): 37.71%; Draw: 30.08%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -3.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.06%EV -4.65%E -1.57%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.11%EV -6.11%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.84%EV -4.35%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 15:25
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -4.97%E -1.69%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -11.39%E -4.85%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 04:35
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -4.97%E -1.69%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -11.39%E -4.85%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 04:35
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.06%EV -5.94%E -2.03%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -6.48%E -2.61%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.85%EV -7.24%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.04%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 15:25
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -9.50%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-28 14:15
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 20:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 20:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 20:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 20:55
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-27 12:17
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:34
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:35
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 02:35
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.20%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.73%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.20%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.73%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 15:15
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -8.20%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-26 15:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-26 15:20
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -11.42%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 15:20
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -11.42%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-01 02:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -11.42%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 15:20
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -11.42%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 15:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -11.42%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-01 02:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.