Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wigan Athletic v Wycombe Wanderers

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC — League 1

Resultado del partido

32 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wigan Athletic (Local)

Predicción 37.88%2.64momio equitativo
EV -5.30%
Ventaja -2.12%
Kelly -3.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.35%38.14%37.81%40.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.382.402.5045.45%42.10%41.67%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wycombe Wanderers (Visitante)

Predicción 35.28%2.83momio equitativo
EV +4.07%
Ventaja +1.38%
Kelly +2.09%
Crecimiento +0.085%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.83%35.03%35.28%36.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.732.652.9540.00%36.64%37.81%33.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.84%3.73momio equitativo
EV -3.36%
Ventaja -0.934%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.95%26.83%26.91%27.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.433.453.6030.30%29.13%28.99%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Wigan Athletic (Local): 37.88%; Wycombe Wanderers (Visitante): 35.28%; Empate: 26.84%. Para Wycombe Wanderers (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.83. 11 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.95, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.07%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (32 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -12.88%E -5.60%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +4.07%E +1.38%K +2.09%G +0.085%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.68%EV -15.53%E -6.96%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.83%EV +0.539%E +0.189%K +0.291%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.68%EV -15.53%E -6.96%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.83%EV +0.539%E +0.189%K +0.291%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.68%EV -15.53%E -6.96%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.83%EV +0.539%E +0.189%K +0.291%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -16.66%E -7.57%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -1.23%E -0.438%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -16.66%E -7.57%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -1.23%E -0.438%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.93%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -4.75%E -1.76%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.94%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 15:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -6.52%E -2.46%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.36%E -0.934%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 15:16
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.52%E -2.46%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.73%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 17:15
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.74%EV -6.44%E -2.61%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.31%EV -6.87%E -2.60%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.94%EV -7.12%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 19:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.74%EV -6.44%E -2.61%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.31%EV -6.87%E -2.60%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.94%EV -7.12%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 19:41
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -7.58%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -3.36%E -0.934%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 15:15
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.58%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 15:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.58%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 15:16
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.58%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 15:16
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.58%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 15:21
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 16:30
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.36%E -0.934%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 15:15
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.36%E -0.934%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 15:16
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.09%E -3.79%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 15:15
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.09%E -3.79%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 15:26
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.19%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -10.04%E -3.94%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 15:16
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -9.09%E -3.79%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -10.04%E -3.94%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -8.73%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:31
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.85%E -4.14%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.81%E -4.72%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -8.73%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-12 15:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 36.99%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.25%16.5%2026-09-12 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 15:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 15:16
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 15:16