The School of Odds
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Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stevenage (Local)

Prediction 33.84%2.96fair odd
EV -0.182%
Edge -0.062%
Kelly -0.093%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.77%33.84%34.37%35.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.852.902.9538.46%35.05%34.48%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sheffield Wednesday (Visit)

Prediction 37.82%2.64fair odd
EV -5.46%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -3.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.09%37.82%37.17%39.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.372.382.5043.48%42.17%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.35%28.46%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.223.253.3531.75%31.04%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stevenage (Local): 33.84%; Sheffield Wednesday (Visit): 37.82%; Draw: 28.35%. For Stevenage (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -0.182%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -0.182%E -0.062%K -0.093%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 07:49
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -3.57%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.71%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 07:49
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -3.57%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.71%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 07:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -3.57%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.71%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 07:49
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -5.26%E -1.88%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -10.71%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 07:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -5.26%E -1.88%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -10.71%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 07:48
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.07%EV -10.33%E -3.90%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.04%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 14:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -10.33%E -3.90%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-21 19:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.95%EV -12.02%E -4.62%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -7.88%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 10:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.