The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Stevenage v Plymouth Argyle

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Stevenage 3–0 Plymouth Argyle

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stevenage (Local)

Prediction 34.51%2.90fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.40%34.55%34.51%36.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.702.8040.00%37.10%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Plymouth Argyle (Visit)

Prediction 37.82%2.64fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.935%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.72%37.87%37.87%40.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.462.462.5844.44%40.68%40.65%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.67%3.61fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.905%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.48%27.58%27.62%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.333.343.5031.75%30.07%29.94%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stevenage (Local): 34.51%; Plymouth Argyle (Visit): 37.82%; Draw: 27.67%. For Plymouth Argyle (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.58, with an expected value of -2.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.20%E -2.50%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:50
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.20%E -2.50%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.20%E -2.50%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.20%E -2.50%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.20%E -2.50%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:45
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.20%E -2.50%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.20%E -2.50%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 17:50
picklebet_au🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.10%E -1.85%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 15:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.10%E -1.85%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 13:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.10%E -1.85%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 13:30
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.10%E -1.85%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -4.55%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.23%EV -5.79%E -2.12%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.28%EV -2.41%E -0.935%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -3.17%E -0.905%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-20 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -6.14%E -2.26%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.52%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -7.32%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-20 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -6.14%E -2.26%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.52%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -7.32%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-20 18:24
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.08%EV -6.14%E -2.26%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.83%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 16:05
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.08%EV -6.14%E -2.26%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.83%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 16:05
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.33%EV -6.48%E -2.39%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.82%EV -6.95%E -2.83%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.85%EV -7.59%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.33%EV -6.48%E -2.39%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.82%EV -6.95%E -2.83%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.85%EV -7.59%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 13:00
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -3.17%E -0.905%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 18:00
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 04:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 04:05
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 18:39
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 18:40
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 13:29
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 04:05
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -7.32%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-20 18:00
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 13:30
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 16:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 13:30
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-20 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.43%EV -8.09%E -3.33%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 17:50
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:50
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -14.90%E -6.62%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-20 17:50
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.07%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -7.32%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 04:05
Neds🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.07%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -7.32%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 04:05
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 17:35
BetUS🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 13:00
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 13:30
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -7.33%E -2.99%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 16:48
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 37.72%EV -8.84%E -3.67%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 13:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 17:50
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -8.55%E -3.23%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 17:50
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -9.59%E -3.66%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 13:45
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -9.59%E -3.66%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 18:30
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.59%E -3.66%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 14:15
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.59%E -3.66%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 14:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.59%E -3.66%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 14:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.59%E -3.66%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -5.44%E -2.18%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 14:14
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -9.59%E -3.66%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.03%EV -9.98%E -4.19%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 17:00
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -13.73%E -5.49%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.22%E -3.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.91%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-10-20 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.07%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-10-20 18:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.07%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-10-20 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.07%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-10-20 18:30
Smarkets◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.81%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46%1.2%2026-10-20 18:30