Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

48%

27%

25%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sheffield Wednesday (Local)

Prediction 47.59%2.10fair odd

EV -7.20%

Edge -3.69%

Kelly -7.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.98%47.59%47.31%48.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.931.951.951.9551.81%51.41%51.28%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cambridge United (Visit)

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd

EV -4.23%

Edge -1.20%

Kelly -1.67%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.80%27.13%27.13%27.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.413.403.5330.30%29.35%29.41%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.28%3.96fair odd

EV -3.17%

Edge -0.827%

Kelly -1.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.70%25.28%25.56%25.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.553.673.653.8328.17%27.25%27.40%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sheffield Wednesday (Local): 47.59%; Cambridge United (Visit): 27.13%; Draw: 25.28%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.83, with an expected value of -3.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.51%EV -7.20%E -3.69%K -7.58%G +0.000%	3.53I 28.33%NM 26.80%EV -4.23%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%	3.83I 26.11%NM 24.70%EV -3.17%E -0.827%K -1.12%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-26 15:25
LeoVegas🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.20%E -3.69%K -7.58%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.46%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-09-27 04:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.20%E -3.69%K -7.58%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-09-27 04:45
Codere (IT)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 46.98%EV -8.15%E -4.22%K -8.77%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -10.25%E -2.89%K -4.02%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-09-27 04:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.