Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Peterborough United v Mansfield Town

Inicio: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC

Final: Peterborough United 2–1 Mansfield Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Peterborough United (Local)

Predicción 33.80%2.96momio equitativo
EV -2.98%
Ventaja -1.04%
Kelly -1.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.88%33.83%33.87%39.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.362.722.752.8742.37%36.83%36.36%34.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mansfield Town (Visitante)

Predicción 40.05%2.50momio equitativo
EV +10.54%
Ventaja +3.82%
Kelly +5.99%
Crecimiento +0.631%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.06%40.09%40.01%42.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.332.322.7645.45%42.88%43.10%36.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.14%3.82momio equitativo
EV -0.650%
Ventaja -0.171%
Kelly -0.232%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.34%26.09%26.12%27.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.543.553.8029.41%28.24%28.17%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Peterborough United (Local): 33.80%; Mansfield Town (Visitante): 40.05%; Empate: 26.14%. Para Mansfield Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.50. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.76, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.54%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetUS🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -20.22%E -8.57%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.06%EV +10.54%E +3.82%K +5.99%G +0.631%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 13:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -1.88%E -0.766%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -1.88%E -0.766%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -7.19%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 13:50
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.56%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.97%EV -3.48%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.46%EV -4.83%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 13:35
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -11.09%E -4.22%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:50
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -11.09%E -4.22%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -11.09%E -4.22%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -11.09%E -4.22%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:50
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -11.09%E -4.22%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:50
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -5.08%E -2.14%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.26%E -0.882%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 22:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -5.08%E -2.14%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.26%E -0.882%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 22:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.06%EV -6.70%E -2.43%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -5.48%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 12:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.06%EV -6.70%E -2.43%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -5.48%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 12:54
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.40%EV -3.66%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 13:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -1.96%E -0.522%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 13:10
1xBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.61%EV -5.69%E -2.04%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.49%EV -7.45%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 13:35
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 07:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 07:34
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 22:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -12.11%E -4.66%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 13:35
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -12.11%E -4.66%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -12.11%E -4.66%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 13:50
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -12.11%E -4.66%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -12.11%E -4.66%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.66%EV -6.36%E -2.30%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.28%E -2.68%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -7.97%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -12.11%E -4.66%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -6.68%E -2.87%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 13:50
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -7.08%E -3.05%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:25
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -7.08%E -3.05%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -9.80%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:25
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -1.96%E -0.522%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -3.66%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 13:05
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -1.96%E -0.522%K -0.712%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 13:20
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 13:55
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -3.26%E -0.882%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 13:10
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 13:14
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.49%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 13:25
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 12:55
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 12:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 12:54
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 13:29
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 13:54
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 13:00
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 13:29
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -11.09%E -4.22%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-21 08:15
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -9.89%E -4.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.26%E -0.882%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:59
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.35%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -9.89%E -4.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.26%E -0.882%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:59
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -9.89%E -4.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -3.26%E -0.882%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:10
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.82%EV -9.89%E -4.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -4.57%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 13:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.89%E -4.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 13:10
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -11.43%E -4.36%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -9.89%E -4.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-20 09:44
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -11.89%E -5.40%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -0.650%E -0.171%K -0.232%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -11.89%E -5.40%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 13:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.79%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.05%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%1.2%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%1.2%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%1.2%2026-08-22 13:40
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.72%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.25%1.6%2026-08-22 13:55