The School of Odds
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Oxford United v Reading

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oxford United (Local)

Prediction 49.01%2.04fair odd
EV -6.39%
Edge -3.35%
Kelly -7.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.48%49.01%49.01%49.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.881.881.9154.64%53.25%53.19%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reading (Visit)

Prediction 23.80%4.20fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%23.80%23.80%24.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.893.804.0026.67%25.71%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.19%3.68fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%27.19%27.19%27.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.383.353.4530.30%29.62%29.85%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oxford United (Local): 49.01%; Reading (Visit): 23.80%; Draw: 27.19%. For Reading (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -4.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.82%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 17:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.82%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 17:34
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.82%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.82%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 17:34
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.82%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 17:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.82%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.82%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 17:35
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.48%EV -7.86%E -4.18%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -8.90%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-01 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.91%EV -8.84%E -4.75%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.15%EV -8.90%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-01 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.33%E -5.04%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.26%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.33%E -5.04%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.26%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 17:35
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.33%E -5.04%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.26%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 17:34
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.33%E -5.04%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.26%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 17:35
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -10.31%E -5.63%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.26%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-02 15:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -10.31%E -5.63%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.26%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-02 15:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.