Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oxford United v Burton Albion

Inicio: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: Oxford United 3–0 Burton Albion

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oxford United (Local)

Predicción 50.37%1.99momio equitativo
EV -4.29%
Ventaja -2.26%
Kelly -4.77%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.14%50.39%50.40%52.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.751.831.841.9057.14%54.64%54.35%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Burton Albion (Visitante)

Predicción 23.35%4.28momio equitativo
EV +0.414%
Ventaja +0.096%
Kelly +0.125%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.34%23.29%23.33%24.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.004.004.3026.67%25.00%25.00%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.28%3.81momio equitativo
EV -2.78%
Ventaja -0.751%
Kelly -1.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.62%26.32%26.27%27.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.523.503.7030.30%28.45%28.57%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Oxford United (Local): 50.37%; Burton Albion (Visitante): 23.35%; Empate: 26.28%. Para Burton Albion (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.28. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.414%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44%EV -11.85%E -6.77%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV +0.414%E +0.096%K +0.125%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.30%EV -7.32%E -3.98%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 14:00
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -8.32%E -4.57%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -8.32%E -4.57%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -8.32%E -4.57%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -8.32%E -4.57%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -8.32%E -4.57%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -8.32%E -4.57%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -8.32%E -4.57%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.66%E -3.14%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 08:10
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.66%E -3.14%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 08:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -7.82%E -4.27%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -5.93%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 15:15
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.61%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.23%EV -5.89%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.15%EV -5.93%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 15:15
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 09:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.69%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -2.78%E -0.751%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -5.30%E -2.82%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 09:35
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 22:44
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 22:43
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 08:38
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 08:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 08:40
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 09:35
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 08:40
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.82%E -4.27%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 02:49
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -10.66%E -3.14%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 09:25
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.30%EV -7.82%E -4.27%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 15:19
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.30%EV -7.82%E -4.27%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 17:30
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -9.33%E -5.18%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 06:49
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -9.33%E -5.18%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 06:53
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -11.35%E -6.45%K -14.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -11.35%E -6.45%K -14.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -11.35%E -6.45%K -14.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -11.35%E -6.45%K -14.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -11.85%E -6.77%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -11.85%E -6.77%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -9.33%E -5.18%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 06:15
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.30%EV -5.30%E -2.82%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.00%EV -7.99%E -2.03%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.70%EV -3.30%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 21:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-07 09:35
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.33%E -5.18%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 11:55
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -13.29%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 02:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -13.29%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 02:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -13.29%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 02:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -13.29%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 02:39
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.69%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -6.72%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 14:05
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.91%EV -7.32%E -3.98%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 09:35
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.27%EV -9.33%E -5.18%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-07 09:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -6.72%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 08:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -6.72%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 09:00
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 15:55
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.82%E -4.27%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 14:05
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -7.82%E -4.27%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.03%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 01:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 51.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%3.5%2026-09-09 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%3.6%2026-09-09 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%3.6%2026-09-09 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 51.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.31%4.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 51.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%5.2%2026-09-09 14:30