The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Luton v Leicester City

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 11:30 UTC

Final: Luton 2–1 Leicester City

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luton (Local)

Prediction 43.60%2.29fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.05%43.56%43.67%45.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.122.2050.00%46.97%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leicester City (Visit)

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.78%31.90%31.90%34.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.922.903.0438.46%34.22%34.48%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.58%4.07fair odd
EV -0.681%
Edge -0.169%
Kelly -0.224%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.18%24.54%24.42%25.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.743.754.0427.78%26.72%26.67%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 43.60%; Leicester City (Visit): 31.81%; Draw: 24.58%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.04, with an expected value of -0.681%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 11:16
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 11:15
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 11:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.82%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -5.35%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.82%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -5.35%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -9.04%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -9.04%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 11:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -9.04%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 11:10
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.08%E -1.85%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -9.04%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 11:10
BetUS🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.38%EV -5.39%E -2.48%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.78%EV -3.60%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.84%EV -0.681%E -0.169%K -0.224%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 11:24
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.32%EV -5.39%E -2.48%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.64%EV -3.28%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%EV -1.66%E -0.416%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 11:16
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -4.12%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 11:16
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.35%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 11:16
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:00
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:00
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:00
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.48%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -5.35%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 11:15
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 11:20
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 11:16
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -10.27%E -2.81%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 11:20
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 11:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.26%E -2.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.77%EV -17.28%E -6.65%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -4.12%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 11:25
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -7.57%E -3.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 11:16
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.57%E -3.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 11:25
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.57%E -3.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 11:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.87%EV -7.57%E -3.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.89%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 11:16
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.67%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.12%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 11:24
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.67%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.12%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 11:24
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -1.66%E -0.416%K -0.555%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 11:10
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.58%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 11:16
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.58%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 11:16
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 11:16
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.18%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -6.58%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 11:16
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.04%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 11:19
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.04%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 11:16
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.04%E -2.44%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 11:16
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 11:16
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 11:20
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 11:16
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 11:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.44%E -4.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 11:16
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -9.31%E -4.48%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.92%EV -3.92%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.19%EV -5.11%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 11:16
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.57%EV -9.31%E -4.48%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.25%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.57%EV -9.31%E -4.48%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.25%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.57%EV -9.31%E -4.48%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.25%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 11:00
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.57%EV -9.31%E -4.48%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.25%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 11:00
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.60%EV -9.75%E -4.71%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.34%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.60%EV -9.75%E -4.71%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.34%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -11.50%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 11:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.13%EV -10.18%E -4.94%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.78%EV -3.92%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.09%EV -5.11%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 11:16
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -12.80%E -6.40%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.17%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -7.81%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-10-24 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-10-24 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-10-24 11:25
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-10-24 11:25
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.09%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-10-24 11:25

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.