The School of Odds
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Luton v Doncaster Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:45 UTC

Final: Luton 3–1 Doncaster Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luton (Local)

Prediction 64.72%1.55fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -5.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.32%64.58%64.83%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.451.441.5074.07%68.97%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Doncaster Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 15.62%6.40fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.238%
Kelly +0.281%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.40%15.64%15.57%16.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.855.756.5018.52%17.10%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.66%5.09fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.431%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.45%19.78%19.60%21.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.594.605.0024.39%21.80%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 64.72%; Doncaster Rovers (Visit): 15.62%; Draw: 19.66%. For Doncaster Rovers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.30%EV -8.10%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.48%EV +1.55%E +0.238%K +0.281%G +0.004%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.69%E -0.753%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 18:00
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -8.10%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +1.55%E +0.238%K +0.281%G +0.004%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 16:30
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.26%EV -4.86%E -3.31%K -10.34%G +0.000%6.33I 15.80%NM 15.16%EV -1.11%E -0.175%K -0.208%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.58%EV -3.69%E -0.753%K -0.946%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-27 19:35
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -7.45%E -5.21%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.73%EV -1.58%E -0.250%K -0.298%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -10.57%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 19:20
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -7.45%E -5.21%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.73%EV -1.58%E -0.250%K -0.298%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -10.57%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.52%EV -8.10%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.36%E -0.377%K -0.449%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 14:02
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.97%EV -12.63%E -9.35%K -36.07%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.58%EV -3.14%E -0.506%K -0.604%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.45%EV -3.69%E -0.753%K -0.946%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-27 19:15
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.90%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.06I 16.50%NM 15.42%EV -5.33%E -0.879%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.04%EV -7.45%E -5.21%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.37%EV -5.48%E -0.906%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.58%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 14:04
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -4.21%E -2.85%K -8.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 18:00
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.46%EV -4.86%E -3.31%K -10.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-27 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.04%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -3.69%E -0.753%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 19:20
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -7.62%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 19:20
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 19:18
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 19:19
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.62%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.62%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 19:30
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 19:35
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -8.10%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-27 16:50
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-27 19:19
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.42%EV -8.10%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 19:30
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87%EV -8.74%E -6.20%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 14:03
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.90%EV -10.68%E -7.74%K -28.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -6.26%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-27 18:18
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.47%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -9.39%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.77%EV -13.52%E -3.07%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -4.21%E -2.85%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 14:02
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.50%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 16:19
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 17:59
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.50%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 19:29
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -13.52%E -3.07%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -13.52%E -3.07%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 19:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.17%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -13.52%E -3.07%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.37%EV -5.51%E -3.77%K -11.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.52%EV -12.51%E -2.23%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-27 14:03
Neds🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.37%EV -5.51%E -3.77%K -11.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.52%EV -12.51%E -2.23%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-27 14:02
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -7.45%E -5.21%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -12.51%E -2.23%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -7.62%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 19:30
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -7.45%E -5.21%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -12.51%E -2.23%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -7.62%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 18:00
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.52%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -1.72%E -0.344%K -0.431%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-27 19:20
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -4.21%E -2.85%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-27 19:20
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -6.64%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -4.21%E -2.85%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -15.64%E -2.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -17.45%E -4.15%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 19:15
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -4.21%E -2.85%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -15.64%E -2.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -17.45%E -4.15%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 19:15
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -4.21%E -2.85%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -15.64%E -2.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -17.45%E -4.15%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.19%EV -7.45%E -5.21%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -15.64%E -2.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 16:29
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -4.86%E -3.31%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -15.64%E -2.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -19.41%E -4.73%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-27 19:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -4.86%E -3.31%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -15.64%E -2.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -19.41%E -4.73%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-27 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-10-27 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-10-27 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-10-27 19:30
Matchbook◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-10-27 19:30
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.33%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73%1.4%2026-10-27 19:30