The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Luton v Barnsley

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Luton 2–1 Barnsley

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luton (Local)

Prediction 62.71%1.59fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -7.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.22%62.77%62.62%65.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.481.5371.43%68.21%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barnsley (Visit)

Prediction 17.55%5.70fair odd
EV +7.07%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.36%17.45%17.65%18.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.435.406.1020.41%18.41%18.52%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.74%5.07fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -0.324%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.27%19.78%19.73%20.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.724.755.0023.09%21.20%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 62.71%; Barnsley (Visit): 17.55%; Draw: 19.74%. For Barnsley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.70. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.36%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.43%EV +7.07%E +1.16%K +1.39%G +0.098%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 18:25
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.52%EV -10.33%E -7.22%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +7.07%E +1.16%K +1.39%G +0.098%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.52%EV -10.33%E -7.22%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +7.07%E +1.16%K +1.39%G +0.098%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.52%EV -10.33%E -7.22%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +7.07%E +1.16%K +1.39%G +0.098%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.52%EV -10.33%E -7.22%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +7.07%E +1.16%K +1.39%G +0.098%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.52%EV -10.33%E -7.22%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +7.07%E +1.16%K +1.39%G +0.098%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:25
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.52%EV -10.33%E -7.22%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +7.07%E +1.16%K +1.39%G +0.098%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -9.08%E -6.26%K -20.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV +0.930%E +0.162%K +0.196%G +0.002%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 18:35
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -9.08%E -6.26%K -20.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV +0.930%E +0.162%K +0.196%G +0.002%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.72%EV -11.58%E -8.22%K -28.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV +0.930%E +0.162%K +0.196%G +0.002%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 18:20
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.44%EV -11.58%E -8.22%K -28.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV +0.930%E +0.162%K +0.196%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-20 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.44%EV -11.58%E -8.22%K -28.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV +0.930%E +0.162%K +0.196%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-20 18:25
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -12.21%E -8.72%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV +0.930%E +0.162%K +0.196%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.80%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.64%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.45%EV +0.052%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.23%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-20 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.09%EV -4.69%E -3.08%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.09%EV -1.53%E -0.272%K -0.331%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.81%EV -4.45%E -0.920%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-20 18:35
BetUS🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.09%EV -4.69%E -3.08%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.09%EV -1.53%E -0.272%K -0.331%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.81%EV -4.45%E -0.920%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-20 18:35
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.34%EV -12.21%E -8.72%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -1.70%E -0.304%K -0.370%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-20 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.34%EV -12.21%E -8.72%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -1.70%E -0.304%K -0.370%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-20 18:20
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.15%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.51I 18.15%NM 16.96%EV -3.28%E -0.596%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.65%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -3.46%E -0.629%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -3.27%E -0.667%K -0.838%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -3.46%E -0.629%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -6.23%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.46%E -0.629%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -3.46%E -0.629%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -6.23%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 18:00
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.46%E -0.629%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.46%E -0.629%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.42%EV -12.21%E -8.72%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -3.46%E -0.629%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-20 17:50
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.21%E -0.965%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.34%EV -10.18%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.21%E -0.965%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.34%EV -10.18%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.10%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 18:25
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.06%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.29%E -0.259%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.06%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.29%E -0.259%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.13%EV -4.69%E -3.08%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -6.23%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-20 18:15
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -6.23%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -6.23%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 18:15
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.88%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-20 17:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.91%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -6.23%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 18:25
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-20 18:35
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.36%EV -9.08%E -6.26%K -20.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 18:25
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.68%EV -8.45%E -5.79%K -18.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -7.85%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -9.19%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-20 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.05%EV -5.31%E -3.52%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -8.72%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.05%EV -5.31%E -3.52%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -8.72%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.98%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -8.72%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 18:03
picklebet_au🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 18:15
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.33%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-20 17:50
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.33%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -5.24%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-20 17:50
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 18:10
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 18:10
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -1.29%E -0.259%K -0.324%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 18:00
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.54%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:35
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -12.23%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -14.52%E -3.35%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-20 18:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.31%EV -7.20%E -4.86%K -14.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.52%EV -13.99%E -2.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.50%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.50%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.50%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Matchbook◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.50%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.65%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40%1.1%2026-10-20 18:40