The School of Odds
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Huddersfield Town v Luton

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Huddersfield Town (Local)

Prediction 50.66%1.97fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -6.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.03%50.63%50.66%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.831.831.8755.56%54.74%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luton (Visit)

Prediction 24.61%4.06fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%24.57%24.61%25.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.793.803.9027.03%26.35%26.32%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.73%4.04fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.362%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.80%24.73%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.793.774.0027.78%26.39%26.49%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Huddersfield Town (Local): 50.66%; Luton (Visit): 24.61%; Draw: 24.73%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -1.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -5.26%E -2.81%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.55%EV -6.25%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.42%EV -9.00%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 14:56
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -6.27%E -3.39%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -3.56%E -0.912%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-21 02:49
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.83%EV -6.78%E -3.68%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.17%EV -4.77%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.01%EV -7.51%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 15:53
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.09%E -0.271%K -0.362%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-21 02:49
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -4.79%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 02:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.80%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.08%EV -5.02%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.50%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 06:33
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 02:49
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 17:05
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -8.30%E -4.58%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-21 02:49
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.80%E -4.89%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -3.56%E -0.912%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-21 02:49
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.80%E -4.89%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 14:04
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.80%E -4.89%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-23 14:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%171.1%2026-09-20 17:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%171.1%2026-09-20 17:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.54%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.54%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.92%181.3%2026-09-20 17:39