The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Doncaster Rovers v Oxford United

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Doncaster Rovers (Local)

Prediction 45.87%2.18fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -5.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.31%45.87%45.87%46.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.032.032.0550.00%49.33%49.26%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oxford United (Visit)

Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%27.99%28.14%28.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.343.313.4330.77%29.98%30.17%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.14%3.83fair odd
EV -4.85%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%26.14%25.99%26.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.563.603.6428.57%28.06%27.78%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Doncaster Rovers (Local): 45.87%; Oxford United (Visit): 27.99%; Draw: 26.14%. For Oxford United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.43, with an expected value of -3.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 14:51
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 14:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.51%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 14:51
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -6.43%E -3.15%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.60%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.00%EV -4.85%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 15:55
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.09%EV -6.89%E -3.39%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 14:51
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.89%EV -6.89%E -3.39%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 14:51
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.79%EV -7.35%E -3.64%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.78%EV -6.79%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -8.51%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 15:16
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-21 14:04
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.51%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-19 14:51
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -8.51%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-23 14:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%171.1%2026-09-20 17:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%171.1%2026-09-20 17:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.54%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.54%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.92%181.3%2026-09-20 17:39