Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion v Barnsley

Inicio: 2026-04-03 14:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion (Local)

Predicción 44.82%2.23momio equitativo
EV -2.74%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -2.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.26%44.76%44.77%45.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.092.092.1750.00%47.83%47.85%46.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Barnsley (Visitante)

Predicción 27.95%3.58momio equitativo
EV -2.19%
Ventaja -0.626%
Kelly -0.876%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%27.98%27.99%29.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.273.303.5032.79%30.60%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.23%3.67momio equitativo
EV -1.96%
Ventaja -0.545%
Kelly -0.754%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.99%27.26%27.24%28.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.393.403.6033.33%29.48%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Burton Albion (Local): 44.82%; Barnsley (Visitante): 27.95%; Empate: 27.23%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.67. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.60, con un valor esperado de -1.96%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.31%EV -2.74%E -1.26%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -11.97%E -3.80%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 13:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.31%EV -2.74%E -1.26%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -11.97%E -3.80%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 13:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.31%EV -2.74%E -1.26%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -11.97%E -3.80%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 13:30
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.63%E -1.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -3.63%E -1.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 13:45
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.63%E -1.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.63%E -1.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 13:40
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:39
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:40
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:40
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:40
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:40
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.28%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:29
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.43%EV -4.98%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.67%EV -2.75%E -0.790%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.90%EV -2.51%E -0.700%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-03 13:55
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -4.98%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 13:45
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 13:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -9.18%E -2.82%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 13:40
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 13:40
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -14.77%E -4.84%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-03 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -14.77%E -4.84%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-03 13:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.38%EV -6.32%E -3.03%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -3.32%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-03 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.38%EV -6.32%E -3.03%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -3.32%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-03 13:35
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.73%EV -6.32%E -3.03%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.86%EV -2.75%E -0.790%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.41%EV -10.40%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.60%EV -6.32%E -3.03%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -7.95%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 13:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.55%EV -6.32%E -3.03%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 13:39
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.77%E -3.26%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 13:35
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.77%E -3.26%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 13:35
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -2.19%E -0.626%K -0.876%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 13:55
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -1.96%E -0.545%K -0.754%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 13:40
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 13:40
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 13:40
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -6.38%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:50
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-03 13:44
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:50
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:54
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:55
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:54
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:50
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:49
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.36%E -5.18%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-03 13:54
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.36%E -5.18%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.18%E -2.82%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-03 13:50
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.36%E -5.18%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.18%E -2.82%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-03 13:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -10.36%E -5.18%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -18.30%E -6.10%K -9.15%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-03 13:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.18I 45.87%NM 45.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-04-03 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-04-03 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-04-03 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.63%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.38%1.5%2026-04-03 13:55
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%2.3%2026-04-03 13:55