The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bradford City v Plymouth Argyle

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bradford City (Local)

Prediction 45.94%2.18fair odd
EV -6.29%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -6.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.57%45.94%45.94%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.012.022.0450.76%49.67%49.50%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Plymouth Argyle (Visit)

Prediction 27.43%3.65fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%27.43%27.43%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.393.403.4530.30%29.50%29.41%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.63%3.75fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.34%26.63%26.63%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.503.503.5529.41%28.60%28.57%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bradford City (Local): 45.94%; Plymouth Argyle (Visit): 27.43%; Draw: 26.63%. For Plymouth Argyle (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -5.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -6.29%E -3.08%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -5.45%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -6.29%E -3.08%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -5.45%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -6.29%E -3.08%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.37%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -5.45%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 15:05
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.21%E -3.57%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 15:05
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.21%E -3.57%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 15:04
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.21%E -3.57%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 15:05
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.21%E -3.57%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.21%E -3.57%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 15:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.21%E -3.57%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 15:05
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.21%E -3.57%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 15:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.12%E -4.06%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 15:05
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.12%E -4.06%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.74%E -1.98%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 15:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.12%E -4.06%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.49%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 21:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.13%EV -9.50%E -4.82%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -9.49%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.12%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.13%EV -9.50%E -4.82%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -9.49%E -2.87%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.12%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 44.79%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.05%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.16%16.9%2026-03-22 15:29