Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bradford City v Peterborough United

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: Bradford City 2–0 Peterborough United

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bradford City (Local)

Predicción 57.42%1.74momio equitativo
EV -3.54%
Ventaja -2.10%
Kelly -5.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.83%57.38%57.40%59.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.621.621.6864.10%61.86%61.73%59.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Peterborough United (Visitante)

Predicción 19.37%5.16momio equitativo
EV +0.705%
Ventaja +0.136%
Kelly +0.168%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.89%19.38%19.38%20.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.404.784.755.2022.73%20.93%21.05%19.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.21%4.31momio equitativo
EV -2.50%
Ventaja -0.595%
Kelly -0.781%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.15%23.24%23.22%24.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.703.953.984.2027.03%25.29%25.13%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Bradford City (Local): 57.42%; Peterborough United (Visitante): 19.37%; Empate: 23.21%. Para Peterborough United (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.16. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.705%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.86%EV -9.28%E -5.87%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV +0.705%E +0.136%K +0.168%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 13:39
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.13%EV -5.26%E -3.19%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 19.03%EV -2.39%E -0.475%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.84%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 13:55
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.13%EV -5.26%E -3.19%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 19.03%EV -2.39%E -0.475%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.84%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 13:54
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.781%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 12:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 12:05
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 13:09
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 12:04
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:52
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.92%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -7.61%E -1.91%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 13:54
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.85%E -6.28%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.781%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 13:39
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -9.85%E -6.28%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -9.85%E -6.28%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -3.17%E -0.634%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:54
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.95%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 12:00
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.10%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:34
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.85%EV -8.70%E -5.47%K -14.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.04%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 12:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.48%EV -9.85%E -6.28%K -17.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -7.04%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -5.26%E -3.19%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 13:54
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 13:44
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 13:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 12:05
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -6.41%E -3.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 12:24
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 12:29
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -5.08%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV -8.01%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.83%E -3.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.98%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.83%E -3.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.98%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.14%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.43%EV -9.28%E -5.87%K -16.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -8.98%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 13:04
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.05%EV -9.85%E -6.28%K -17.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.06%EV -8.98%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.05%EV -9.85%E -6.28%K -17.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.06%EV -8.98%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 13:34
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -9.95%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:44
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -9.95%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -5.26%E -3.19%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.781%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:50
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -5.26%E -3.19%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.50%E -0.595%K -0.781%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:45
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 13:45
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 12:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.38%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 12:54
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.38%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 12:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.38%EV -7.56%E -4.69%K -12.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 12:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.79%EV -10.43%E -6.68%K -18.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -14.11%E -3.81%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 13:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.79%EV -10.43%E -6.68%K -18.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -14.11%E -3.81%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 13:34
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.26%EV -4.68%E -2.82%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.57%EV -12.08%E -2.66%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.17%EV -6.45%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:49
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -5.83%E -3.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -5.83%E -3.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -4.82%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:49
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -5.83%E -3.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -12.95%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -6.98%E -4.31%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -12.85%E -2.86%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 12:38
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.83%EV -3.54%E -2.10%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -14.79%E -3.36%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:48
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 13:55
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 13:55
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 13:45