The School of Odds
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Bradford City v Barnsley

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bradford City (Local)

Prediction 52.75%1.90fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -6.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.85%52.82%52.76%54.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.761.781.8058.82%56.81%56.18%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barnsley (Visit)

Prediction 22.07%4.53fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.660%
Kelly -0.854%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.14%22.00%22.10%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.194.204.4024.39%23.88%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.18%3.97fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.65%25.18%25.14%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.683.703.8028.17%27.18%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bradford City (Local): 52.75%; Barnsley (Visit): 22.07%; Draw: 25.18%. For Barnsley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -2.91%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.04%E -2.80%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.32%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-23 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.04%E -2.80%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-23 16:45
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:02
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:06
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:06
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:06
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:06
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:06
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.11%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.81%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -6.22%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-23 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.83%E -1.85%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-23 16:45
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.83%E -1.85%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-23 16:45
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-23 16:40
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -6.10%E -3.43%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-23 16:40
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -6.63%E -3.74%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 12:40
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.53%EV -6.63%E -3.74%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-24 14:05
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -6.63%E -3.74%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-23 16:50
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -6.63%E -3.74%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-23 17:15
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.78%EV -8.21%E -4.72%K -11.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -6.83%E -1.85%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-24 12:42
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -8.21%E -4.72%K -11.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-23 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -8.74%E -5.05%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 14:06
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -8.74%E -5.05%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 14:05
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.38%EV -8.74%E -5.05%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -9.26%E -5.39%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -2.91%E -0.660%K -0.854%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-25 09:39
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.52%EV -9.26%E -5.39%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-19 14:02
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.52%EV -9.26%E -5.39%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -9.53%E -2.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-19 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -10.32%E -6.07%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -6.83%E -1.85%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-21 12:13
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.32%E -6.07%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-24 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.