The School of Odds
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Blackpool v Leicester City

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Blackpool (Local)

Prediction 32.05%3.12fair odd
EV -0.636%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.303%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.05%31.67%32.05%32.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.1035.71%33.13%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leicester City (Visit)

Prediction 42.39%2.36fair odd
EV -6.33%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -5.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%42.82%42.39%44.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.122.122.2149.02%47.25%47.17%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -0.894%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%25.51%25.56%25.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.613.653.7828.57%27.72%27.40%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Blackpool (Local): 32.05%; Leicester City (Visit): 42.39%; Draw: 25.56%. For Blackpool (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -0.636%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 14:25
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 14:25
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -0.636%E -0.205%K -0.303%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -10.14%E -4.78%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 10:25
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.18%EV -3.84%E -1.28%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.95%EV -12.68%E -6.16%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-26 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.18%EV -3.84%E -1.28%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.95%EV -12.68%E -6.16%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-26 14:20
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.18%EV -3.84%E -1.28%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.95%EV -12.68%E -6.16%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-26 14:25
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -3.84%E -1.28%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.19%EV -13.53%E -6.63%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-26 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -3.84%E -1.28%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.19%EV -13.53%E -6.63%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-26 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.10%EV -5.44%E -1.85%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.85%EV -6.33%E -2.86%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.05%EV -3.38%E -0.894%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 15:25
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -7.69%E -2.67%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.75%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 15:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -7.69%E -2.67%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.75%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 15:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -10.25%E -3.66%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.87%E -4.13%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-26 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.