Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

West Ham United v Portsmouth

Inicio: 2026-08-08 14:02 UTC

Final: West Ham United 3–1 Portsmouth

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

West Ham United (Local)

Predicción 66.55%1.50momio equitativo
EV -3.50%
Ventaja -2.41%
Kelly -7.77%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.50%66.51%66.35%68.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.381.401.4576.92%72.64%71.43%68.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Portsmouth (Visitante)

Predicción 12.79%7.82momio equitativo
EV +1.91%
Ventaja +0.239%
Kelly +0.274%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.84%13.00%12.65%15.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.807.107.007.9717.24%14.09%14.29%12.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.66%4.84momio equitativo
EV +1.23%
Ventaja +0.252%
Kelly +0.316%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.83%20.49%21.00%21.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.634.704.9023.81%21.60%21.28%20.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: West Ham United (Local): 66.55%; Portsmouth (Visitante): 12.79%; Empate: 20.66%. Para Portsmouth (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.82. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.97, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.91%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.94%EV -6.16%E -4.37%K -15.02%G +0.000%7.97I 12.55%NM 11.84%EV +1.91%E +0.239%K +0.274%G +0.005%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.21%EV -8.06%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 13:59
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.832%E -0.173%K -0.219%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 13:49
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.832%E -0.173%K -0.219%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 13:48
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.86%E -0.393%K -0.497%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.61%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -8.06%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:24
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:24
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:24
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:24
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.8%2026-08-08 13:25
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -10.54%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:59
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.86%EV -10.82%E -8.07%K -31.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.83%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%8.4%2026-08-08 13:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.16%EV -10.15%E -7.52%K -29.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -4.10%E -0.547%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -2.90%E -0.617%K -0.783%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:45
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -6.16%E -4.37%K -15.02%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.52%EV -5.38%E -0.727%K -0.841%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -12.19%E -2.87%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 14:00
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.35%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.01%EV -7.30%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -0.832%E -0.173%K -0.219%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 13:49
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.25%EV -9.49%E -6.98%K -26.35%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.80%EV -7.30%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV +1.23%E +0.252%K +0.316%G +0.004%7.7%2026-08-08 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -5.49%E -3.87%K -13.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 14:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -0.832%E -0.173%K -0.219%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -0.832%E -0.173%K -0.219%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -1.86%E -0.393%K -0.497%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 13:50
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -1.86%E -0.393%K -0.497%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 13:49
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:54
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:50
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.54%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:59
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.54%EV -8.16%E -5.91%K -21.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 13:54
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -11.48%E -8.63%K -34.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 13:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.38%EV -13.48%E -10.37%K -44.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.91%EV -2.90%E -0.617%K -0.783%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.38%EV -13.48%E -10.37%K -44.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.91%EV -2.90%E -0.617%K -0.783%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 13:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.38%EV -13.48%E -10.37%K -44.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -10.50%E -1.50%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.91%EV -2.90%E -0.617%K -0.783%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 13:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.89%EV -10.82%E -8.07%K -31.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.08%EV -13.69%E -2.03%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 13:59
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -5.49%E -3.87%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -16.89%E -2.60%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:59
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -9.49%E -6.98%K -26.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -16.89%E -2.60%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 14:00
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -11.48%E -8.63%K -34.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -16.89%E -2.60%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 13:49
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.70%EV -3.50%E -2.41%K -7.77%G +0.000%6.49I 15.41%NM 14.45%EV -17.02%E -2.62%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 13:58
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.75%EV -6.16%E -4.37%K -15.02%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.26%EV -18.17%E -2.84%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -10.13%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.75%EV -6.16%E -4.37%K -15.02%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.26%EV -18.17%E -2.84%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -10.13%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 13:59
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.13%EV -5.49%E -3.87%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -23.28%E -3.88%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.47%EV -7.49%E -5.39%K -19.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -23.28%E -3.88%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -2.90%E -0.617%K -0.783%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 13:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -6.82%E -4.87%K -17.06%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -25.84%E -4.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.17%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-08-08 14:00
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-08-08 14:00