The School of Odds
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Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Middlesbrough (Local)

Prediction 45.33%2.21fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.48%45.01%45.36%45.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.011.972.1252.36%49.67%50.76%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wrexham AFC (Visit)

Prediction 28.30%3.53fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.92%28.62%28.28%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.4033.33%31.42%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%26.37%26.36%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.453.6033.33%28.84%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Middlesbrough (Local): 45.33%; Wrexham AFC (Visit): 28.30%; Draw: 26.38%. For Wrexham AFC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -3.79%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.20%EV -3.90%E -1.84%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.18%EV -3.79%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.62%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-26 11:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.62%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-30 02:59
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.62%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-26 14:39
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.09%EV -8.89%E -2.76%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.31%EV -6.10%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-29 06:50
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:00
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:19
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.08%E -3.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.08%E -3.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.08%E -3.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-26 14:29
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -8.44%E -4.18%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -10.87%E -3.45%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-02 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.70%E -5.43%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.70%E -5.43%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.70%E -5.43%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:39
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:39
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.61%E -5.95%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-27 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 43.99%EV -13.42%E -7.03%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.01%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.01%EV -20.87%E -6.96%K -10.44%G +0.000%19.0%2026-06-26 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39

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