The School of Odds

Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC

2026-08-08 16:00 UTC — EFL Cup

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Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Middlesbrough (Local)

Prediction 45.33%2.21fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.48%45.01%45.36%45.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.912.011.972.1252%50%51%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Wrexham AFC (Visit)

Prediction 28.30%3.53fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.92%28.62%28.28%30.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.4033%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%26.37%26.36%28.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.453.6033%29%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.20%EV -3.90%E -1.84%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.18%EV -3.79%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.62%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-26 11:49
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.62%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-30 02:59
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.62%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-26 14:39
1xBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.09%EV -8.89%E -2.76%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.31%EV -6.10%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-29 06:50
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:00
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -4.81%E -2.29%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 14:19
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.08%E -3.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.08%E -3.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.08%E -3.45%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.68%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-26 14:29
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -8.44%E -4.18%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -10.87%E -3.45%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-02 10:20
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.70%E -5.43%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.70%E -5.43%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.70%E -5.43%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:39
BetRivers1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.16%E -5.69%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-30 08:39
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.61%E -5.95%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.45%E -2.95%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-27 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 43.99%EV -13.42%E -7.03%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.01%EV -15.11%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.01%EV -20.87%E -6.96%K -10.44%G +0.000%19.0%2026-06-26 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39