Language:English
Manchester City v Brighton and Hove Albion
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manchester City (Local)
Prediction 49.67%2.01fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.835%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.39%49.62%49.67%51.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.871.9855.56%53.26%53.48%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit)
Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd
EV +2.94%
Edge +0.755%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.34%26.35%26.40%27.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.543.553.9029.85%28.29%28.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.93%4.18fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.456%
Kelly -0.604%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.80%24.03%23.92%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.904.1027.78%25.70%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester City (Local): 49.67%; Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit): 26.40%; Draw: 23.93%. For Brighton and Hove Albion (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV +2.94%E +0.755%K +1.02%G +0.030% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.24%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.99%EV -1.01%E -0.271%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -1.87%E -0.456%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.24%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.99%EV -1.01%E -0.271%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -1.87%E -0.456%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.98%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%EV -2.33%E -0.631%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.82%EV -2.59%E -0.636%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.33%E -0.631%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-28 18:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.33%E -0.631%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-28 18:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -9.10%E -4.97%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -2.33%E -0.631%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.80%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.39%EV -2.86%E -0.778%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.80%EV -2.35%E -0.576%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.79%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.25%EV -2.86%E -0.778%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.97%EV -3.55%E -0.880%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.79%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.25%EV -2.86%E -0.778%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.97%EV -3.55%E -0.880%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.21%EV -2.15%E -1.09%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -3.65%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-28 18:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-28 18:58 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-28 19:13 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-28 19:14 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-28 18:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-28 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-28 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-28 19:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.57%EV -9.10%E -4.97%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-28 19:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.89%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -6.29%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.41%EV -3.07%E -0.758%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-28 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.89%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -6.29%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.41%EV -3.07%E -0.758%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-28 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.29%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.29%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.29%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.29%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.29%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.61%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.61%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.66%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.61%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.61%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.05%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.75%EV -7.61%E -4.09%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.93%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -5.46%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-28 18:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.58%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -8.93%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -7.85%E -2.04%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.58%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -8.93%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -7.85%E -2.04%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.58%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -8.93%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -7.85%E -2.04%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.54%EV -9.10%E -4.97%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -8.93%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-28 19:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -1.65%E -0.835%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-28 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -1.87%E -0.456%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.84%E -3.84%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-28 19:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.22%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.22%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.49%EV -9.60%E -5.27%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -10.25%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -13.84%E -3.84%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-28 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -13.84%E -3.84%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-28 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -13.84%E -3.84%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-28 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -10.59%E -5.89%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -9.05%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -10.59%E -5.89%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.25%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -9.05%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.60%EV -9.60%E -5.27%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -11.57%E -3.45%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -7.85%E -2.04%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-28 18:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -10.59%E -5.89%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.46%EV -11.57%E -3.45%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -12.64%E -3.46%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.78% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70% | 0.5% | 2026-10-28 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.08% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60% | 0.9% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.08% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60% | 0.9% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.08% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60% | 0.9% | 2026-10-28 19:15 |