The School of Odds
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Fleetwood Town v Everton

2026-12-17 20:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fleetwood Town (Local)

Prediction 9.46%10.58fair odd
EV +37.11%
Edge +2.56%
Kelly +2.75%
Growth +1.02%

assuming max odds 14.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.51%9.46%9.46%13.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.257.2514.5014.29%10.81%13.79%6.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Everton (Visit)

Prediction 75.06%1.33fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.32%75.06%75.06%78.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.271.301.3182.64%78.48%76.92%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.49%6.46fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -0.905%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.48%15.49%15.49%16.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.805.906.1018.18%17.24%16.95%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fleetwood Town (Local): 9.46%; Everton (Visit): 75.06%; Draw: 15.49%. For Fleetwood Town (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.58. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 14.50, producing a positive expected value of +37.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV +37.11%E +2.56%K +2.75%G +1.02%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.01%EV -9.18%E -7.59%K -43.72%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.48%EV -5.52%E -0.905%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-04 12:54
NordicBet🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV +37.11%E +2.56%K +2.75%G +1.02%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.01%EV -9.18%E -7.59%K -43.72%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.48%EV -5.52%E -0.905%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-04 12:54
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -29.08%E -3.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -3.18%E -2.46%K -10.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -7.07%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-04 12:10
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.88%EV -31.45%E -4.34%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.29%EV -1.68%E -1.28%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -8.62%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-04 12:10
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -33.81%E -4.83%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -2.43%E -1.87%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -14.82%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 12:09
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -33.81%E -4.83%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -2.43%E -1.87%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -14.82%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 12:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -33.81%E -4.83%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -2.43%E -1.87%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -14.82%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 9.29%1.21I 82.64%NM 46.09%1.25I 80.00%NM 44.62%79.3%2026-11-04 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 9.29%1.21I 82.64%NM 46.09%1.25I 80.00%NM 44.62%79.3%2026-11-04 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 9.23%1.21I 82.64%NM 45.76%1.23I 81.30%NM 45.01%80.6%2026-11-04 12:30
Arbitrage (6 combinations) +0.38%Betsson 14.50 (6.9%) / SportsBet 1.31 (76.6%) / Betsson 6.10 (16.5%)Show all 6 combinations
Fleetwood Town (Local)Everton (Visit)DrawMargin
Betsson🎯 14.50 (6.9%)SportsBet🎯 1.31 (76.6%)Betsson🎯 6.10 (16.5%)+0.376%
Betsson🎯 14.50 (6.9%)SportsBet🎯 1.31 (76.6%)NordicBet🎯 6.10 (16.5%)+0.376%
NordicBet🎯 14.50 (6.9%)SportsBet🎯 1.31 (76.6%)Betsson🎯 6.10 (16.5%)+0.376%
NordicBet🎯 14.50 (6.9%)SportsBet🎯 1.31 (76.6%)NordicBet🎯 6.10 (16.5%)+0.376%
Betsson🎯 14.50 (6.9%)SportsBet🎯 1.31 (76.4%)FanDuel🎯 6.00 (16.7%)+0.101%
NordicBet🎯 14.50 (6.9%)SportsBet🎯 1.31 (76.4%)FanDuel🎯 6.00 (16.7%)+0.101%