Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers

2026-09-09 18:45 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Everton (Local)

Prediction 57.70%1.73fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -3.65%
Kelly -9.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.63%57.82%57.70%59.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.601.6365.36%62.83%62.50%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wolverhampton Wanderers (Visit)

Prediction 18.46%5.42fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.498%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.77%18.40%18.46%19.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.985.005.3022.22%20.09%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.84%4.20fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.98%23.78%23.84%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.833.804.1027.78%26.10%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Everton (Local): 57.70%; Wolverhampton Wanderers (Visit): 18.46%; Draw: 23.84%. For Wolverhampton Wanderers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.42. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.30, with an expected value of -2.14%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -5.95%E -3.65%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.68%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.66%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 05:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -6.52%E -4.03%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -3.06%E -0.583%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -4.66%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 05:45
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -7.68%E -4.80%K -12.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -3.06%E -0.583%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.66%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 05:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.68%E -4.80%K -12.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.68%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.66%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 06:10
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -7.68%E -4.80%K -12.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.68%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 05:45
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -7.68%E -4.80%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -11.37%E -2.37%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -11.81%E -3.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -7.68%E -4.80%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -11.37%E -2.37%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -11.81%E -3.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 05:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -7.68%E -4.80%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -11.37%E -2.37%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -11.81%E -3.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 05:44
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -8.26%E -5.19%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -2.14%E -0.404%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.28%E -0.555%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 05:45
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.18%EV -8.83%E -5.59%K -15.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -7.68%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.75%EV -13.00%E -3.56%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 06:04
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -9.41%E -5.99%K -16.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.68%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 05:50
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -9.41%E -5.99%K -16.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -7.68%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.62%E -2.83%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 06:04
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -11.72%E -7.66%K -22.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.26%EV -16.91%E -3.76%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.08%EV -14.19%E -3.94%K -5.46%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-04 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.