Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

58%

18%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Everton (Local)

Prediction 58.06%1.72fair odd

EV -5.37%

Edge -3.29%

Kelly -8.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.63%58.02%58.11%59.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.601.601.6364.52%62.52%62.50%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wolverhampton Wanderers (Visit)

Prediction 18.20%5.50fair odd

EV -2.64%

Edge -0.494%

Kelly -0.608%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.76%18.24%18.16%18.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.755.055.005.3521.05%19.79%20.00%18.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.75%4.21fair odd

EV -2.64%

Edge -0.644%

Kelly -0.852%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.98%23.74%23.73%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.653.883.994.1027.40%25.75%25.09%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Everton (Local): 58.06%; Wolverhampton Wanderers (Visit): 18.20%; Draw: 23.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -2.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -5.37%E -3.29%K -8.52%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.01%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -5.01%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-04 05:44
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.66%EV -5.95%E -3.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%	5.35I 18.69%NM 17.76%EV -2.64%E -0.494%K -0.608%G +0.000%	4.03I 24.81%NM 23.58%EV -4.30%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-06 20:35
LowVig.ag🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.66%EV -5.95%E -3.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%	5.35I 18.69%NM 17.76%EV -2.64%E -0.494%K -0.608%G +0.000%	4.03I 24.81%NM 23.58%EV -4.30%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-07 02:55
Betr (AU)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.95%E -3.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -4.46%E -0.850%K -1.05%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.01%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-04 05:45
Pinnacle🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -5.95%E -3.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%	5.21I 19.19%NM 18.09%EV -5.19%E -0.997%K -1.23%G +0.000%	3.97I 25.19%NM 23.74%EV -5.73%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-06 05:10
William Hill🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -5.95%E -3.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -9.01%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.95%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -7.11%E -4.44%K -11.85%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -4.46%E -0.850%K -1.05%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.01%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-04 05:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.11%E -4.44%K -11.85%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.01%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.01%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-04 06:10
888sport🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -7.11%E -4.44%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -12.65%E -2.64%K -3.33%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.14%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-09-04 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -7.11%E -4.44%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -12.65%E -2.64%K -3.33%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.14%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-09-04 05:45
888sport (SE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -7.11%E -4.44%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -12.65%E -2.64%K -3.33%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.14%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-09-04 05:44
FanDuel🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -7.69%E -4.84%K -13.03%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -3.55%E -0.671%K -0.827%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.64%E -0.644%K -0.852%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-04 05:45
PlayUp🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 57.18%EV -8.27%E -5.23%K -14.26%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -9.01%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 24.75%EV -13.33%E -3.65%K -5.03%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-09-04 06:04
Paddy Power🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.85%E -5.64%K -15.53%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -9.01%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.01%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-09-05 23:04
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.85%E -5.64%K -15.53%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -9.01%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.95%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-09-04 06:04
Sky Bet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -10.01%E -6.46%K -18.20%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -13.56%E -2.86%K -3.62%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -10.95%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-06 18:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.