The School of Odds
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Everton v Newcastle United

2026-10-28 15:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Everton (Local)

Prediction 39.52%2.53fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.967%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.87%39.52%39.52%40.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.362.352.4743.48%42.34%42.55%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle United (Visit)

Prediction 33.17%3.02fair odd
EV -5.47%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.88%33.17%33.17%33.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.812.802.8535.71%35.61%35.71%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.31%3.66fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%27.31%27.31%27.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.443.423.5029.41%29.06%29.20%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Everton (Local): 39.52%; Newcastle United (Visit): 33.17%; Draw: 27.31%. For Everton (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.47, with an expected value of -2.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.87%EV -2.39%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -5.47%E -1.92%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -4.40%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-17 09:43
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -5.16%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.13%E -2.55%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.40%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 11:40
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -7.13%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -7.13%E -2.55%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 11:40
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.13%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.13%E -2.55%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -7.13%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 11:40
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.13%E -2.55%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.13%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 11:40
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.11%E -3.96%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.13%E -2.55%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.13%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 11:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-17 10:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-17 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-09-17 10:51