The School of Odds
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Bristol City v Walsall

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bristol City (Local)

Prediction 72.62%1.38fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -4.30%
Kelly -18.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.17%72.45%73.18%75.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.72%78.74%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Walsall (Visit)

Prediction 10.52%9.50fair odd
EV +15.74%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.248%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.75%10.63%9.92%12.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.207.5011.0014.29%12.19%13.33%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.86%5.93fair odd
EV +1.14%
Edge +0.190%
Kelly +0.228%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.04%16.92%16.90%17.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.385.406.0020.00%18.57%18.52%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bristol City (Local): 72.62%; Walsall (Visit): 10.52%; Draw: 16.86%. For Walsall (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.50. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.21%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.16%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.75%EV +15.74%E +1.43%K +1.57%G +0.248%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.04%EV +1.14%E +0.190%K +0.228%G +0.003%3.9%2026-06-26 11:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.82%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +10.48%E +0.998%K +1.10%G +0.116%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -7.29%E -1.33%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-02 20:05
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.89%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +5.22%E +0.522%K +0.580%G +0.030%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -7.29%E -1.33%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.89%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +5.22%E +0.522%K +0.580%G +0.030%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -7.29%E -1.33%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -9.22%E -7.38%K -36.89%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +5.22%E +0.522%K +0.580%G +0.030%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -7.29%E -1.33%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-26 14:29
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.76%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%9.85I 10.15%NM 9.51%EV +3.64%E +0.369%K +0.411%G +0.015%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -5.60%E -1.00%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-26 18:19
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.18%EV -9.95%E -8.02%K -41.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -0.045%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -3.92%E -0.687%K -0.834%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-02 21:24
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -11.40%E -9.35%K -51.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -5.31%E -0.590%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -15.72%E -3.14%K -3.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-06-27 15:10
LeoVegas🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.70%EV -7.04%E -5.50%K -25.16%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.62%EV -16.88%E -2.14%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -7.29%E -1.33%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-02 10:20
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -21.09%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -8.98%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 08:39
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -26.35%E -3.76%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -15.72%E -3.14%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 14:00
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -26.35%E -3.76%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -15.72%E -3.14%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -26.35%E -3.76%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -15.72%E -3.14%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -26.35%E -3.76%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -15.72%E -3.14%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-06-26 11:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-06-26 12:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-06-26 12:09

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