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Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Final: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–0 Watford

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wolverhampton Wanderers (Local)

Prediction 65.11%1.54fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.45%65.14%65.04%68.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.421.441.5175.76%70.35%69.69%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Watford (Visit)

Prediction 14.68%6.81fair odd
EV +17.40%
Edge +2.18%
Kelly +2.49%
Growth +0.433%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.15%14.63%14.76%16.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.546.508.0017.86%15.29%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.21%4.95fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.266%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.40%20.23%20.21%21.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.604.585.0023.81%21.76%21.81%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wolverhampton Wanderers (Local): 65.11%; Watford (Visit): 14.68%; Draw: 20.21%. For Watford (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.81. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.42%EV -7.54%E -5.31%K -17.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.15%EV +17.40%E +2.18%K +2.49%G +0.433%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV +1.06%E +0.213%K +0.266%G +0.003%2.9%2026-10-24 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.42%EV -7.54%E -5.31%K -17.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.15%EV +17.40%E +2.18%K +2.49%G +0.433%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV +1.06%E +0.213%K +0.266%G +0.003%2.9%2026-10-24 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.42%EV -7.54%E -5.31%K -17.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.15%EV +17.40%E +2.18%K +2.49%G +0.433%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV +1.06%E +0.213%K +0.266%G +0.003%2.9%2026-10-24 12:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.59%EV -7.54%E -5.31%K -17.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.91%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 13:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 13:10
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 13:20
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 13:10
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +2.73%E +0.389%K +0.454%G +0.012%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -7.02%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV +1.26%E +0.182%K +0.213%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV +1.26%E +0.182%K +0.213%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -8.84%E -6.32%K -22.11%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.58%EV +0.524%E +0.077%K +0.090%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.00%EV -6.01%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 13:10
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.50%EV -4.28%E -2.91%K -9.12%G +0.000%6.79I 14.73%NM 14.18%EV -0.356%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.31%EV -4.19%E -0.884%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 13:45
GTbets🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.63%EV -5.59%E -3.85%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.78I 14.75%NM 14.04%EV -0.503%E -0.074%K -0.087%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.33%EV -5.40%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:50
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.94%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV -0.943%E -0.140%K -0.164%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 13:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -8.84%E -6.32%K -22.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -0.943%E -0.140%K -0.164%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -0.943%E -0.140%K -0.164%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -0.943%E -0.140%K -0.164%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 13:10
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -0.943%E -0.140%K -0.164%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 13:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -10.15%E -7.35%K -26.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -0.943%E -0.140%K -0.164%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 13:10
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.83%EV -3.63%E -2.46%K -7.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.76%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 13:55
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.12%EV -4.28%E -2.91%K -9.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.15%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-24 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.43%EV -5.59%E -3.85%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 13:45
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.56%EV -4.94%E -3.38%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 13:55
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -7.02%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -5.59%E -3.85%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 13:55
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -5.59%E -3.85%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 13:40
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.54%E -5.31%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 13:35
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.57%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 13:54
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.57%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 13:54
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -8.84%E -6.32%K -22.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:14
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.84%E -6.32%K -22.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 12:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.84%E -6.32%K -22.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.57%EV -10.80%E -7.88%K -29.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.19%EV -12.75%E -9.51%K -37.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -4.61%E -0.710%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 13:10
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.45%EV -1.68%E -1.11%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -6.08%E -0.950%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.58%EV -10.26%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-24 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.26%EV -4.94%E -3.38%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -6.08%E -0.950%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -2.98%E -0.621%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 13:30
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.43%EV -4.28%E -2.91%K -9.12%G +0.000%6.38I 15.67%NM 14.85%EV -6.37%E -0.999%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.72%EV -7.63%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.41%EV -4.94%E -3.38%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.93%EV -7.55%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.67%EV -8.03%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 13:54
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -4.28%E -2.91%K -9.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV -8.28%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.66%EV -6.89%E -4.82%K -16.02%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.79%EV -8.28%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 13:31
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -3.63%E -2.46%K -7.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -2.98%E -0.621%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:40
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -3.99%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 13:44
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%EV -4.94%E -3.38%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 13:38
BetUS🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%EV -4.94%E -3.38%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 13:39
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -5.59%E -3.85%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:35
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -5.59%E -3.85%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 13:55
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 13:05
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.24%E -4.33%K -14.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -11.06%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 13:05
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.84%E -6.32%K -22.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 13:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 64.83%EV -12.75%E -9.51%K -37.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.48%EV -11.95%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.69%EV -15.11%E -3.60%K -4.72%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-24 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.08%EV -10.80%E -7.88%K -29.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.27%EV -15.62%E -2.72%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.66%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 13:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 64.84%EV -14.05%E -10.65%K -43.91%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.02%EV -16.35%E -2.87%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.14%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-24 13:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.06%EV -8.84%E -6.32%K -22.11%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -17.82%E -3.18%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 13:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.28%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%0.6%2026-10-24 13:50
Matchbook◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.28%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%0.6%2026-10-24 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.03%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.03%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-10-24 13:55
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.18%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.70%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.12%1.4%2026-10-24 13:55
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 65.72%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.71%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-10-24 13:50

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