Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

West Ham United v Southampton

2026-10-24 14:00 UTC — Championship

Resultado del partido

42 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

West Ham United (Local)

Predicción 56.60%1.77momio equitativo
EV -3.21%
Ventaja -1.88%
Kelly -4.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.41%56.70%56.62%58.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.651.651.7165.79%60.72%60.61%58.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Southampton (Visitante)

Predicción 21.37%4.68momio equitativo
EV +1.49%
Ventaja +0.313%
Kelly +0.397%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.99%21.25%21.30%23.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.654.344.384.7527.40%23.04%22.86%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.03%4.54momio equitativo
EV -0.855%
Ventaja -0.190%
Kelly -0.244%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.93%22.04%22.08%23.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.144.104.5026.32%24.15%24.39%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: West Ham United (Local): 56.60%; Southampton (Visitante): 21.37%; Empate: 22.03%. Para Southampton (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.68. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.75, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.49%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV +1.49%E +0.313%K +0.397%G +0.006%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.36%EV -7.17%E -4.37%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.37%EV +0.420%E +0.089%K +0.114%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.27%EV -0.855%E -0.190%K -0.244%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-17 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.52%EV -3.21%E -1.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.01%EV -1.72%E -0.373%K -0.477%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-17 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.52%EV -3.21%E -1.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.01%EV -1.72%E -0.373%K -0.477%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-17 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.52%EV -3.21%E -1.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.01%EV -1.72%E -0.373%K -0.477%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-17 14:25
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV -1.72%E -0.373%K -0.477%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 19:35
Bet Right🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.98%EV -7.74%E -4.75%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -1.72%E -0.373%K -0.477%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.48%EV -3.06%E -0.695%K -0.899%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 19:35
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.58%EV -10.00%E -6.29%K -16.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -1.72%E -0.373%K -0.477%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.06%E -0.695%K -0.899%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 14:29
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.17%E -4.37%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -3.85%E -0.856%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -0.855%E -0.190%K -0.244%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -6.61%E -4.00%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.85%E -0.856%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -3.06%E -0.695%K -0.899%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 19:50
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -3.85%E -0.856%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -0.855%E -0.190%K -0.244%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 14:30
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.67%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.85%E -0.856%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 14:33
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.85%E -0.856%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 15:05
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -9.44%E -5.90%K -15.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -3.85%E -0.856%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -7.46%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.53%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -4.92%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 15:15
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.09%EV -7.17%E -4.37%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.62%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 15:20
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 14:25
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 14:20
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 14:25
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 14:24
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.66%EV -6.04%E -3.64%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -7.06%E -1.62%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 14:25
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -4.34%E -2.57%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -8.13%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.85%EV -4.38%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 20:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -6.61%E -4.00%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -8.13%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.85%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -7.46%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 15:05
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -7.17%E -4.37%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.97%E -3.28%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -7.17%E -4.37%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.97%E -3.28%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:25
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -7.17%E -4.37%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.97%E -3.28%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -7.17%E -4.37%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.97%E -3.28%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:20
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -7.46%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 15:09
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -3.78%E -2.22%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 19:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 17:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 17:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 17:25
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -6.61%E -4.00%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 19:49
picklebet_au🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -6.61%E -4.00%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -14.07%E -3.61%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-17 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.55%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 15:05
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.09%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%EV -12.97%E -3.28%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.49%EV -10.57%E -6.69%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.03%EV -14.96%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.48%EV -14.07%E -3.61%K -4.85%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 15:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 56.35%EV -13.97%E -9.19%K -26.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.68%EV -15.60%E -3.95%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.96%EV -14.07%E -3.61%K -4.85%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-17 15:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.41%EV -11.70%E -7.50%K -20.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.25%EV -22.01%E -6.03%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.34%EV -16.28%E -4.28%K -5.81%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-17 15:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.38%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%3.1%2026-10-17 20:00
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 25.87%1.01I 99.01%NM 42.27%1.34I 74.63%NM 31.86%134.2%2026-10-17 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 25.23%1.12I 89.29%NM 37.39%1.12I 89.29%NM 37.39%138.8%2026-10-17 20:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 25.23%1.12I 89.29%NM 37.39%1.12I 89.29%NM 37.39%138.8%2026-10-17 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 25.23%1.12I 89.29%NM 37.39%1.12I 89.29%NM 37.39%138.8%2026-10-17 20:00