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Watford v Lincoln City

2026-11-03 19:45 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Watford (Local)

Prediction 40.62%2.46fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.11%40.62%40.62%42.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.272.292.4050.00%43.98%43.67%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lincoln City (Visit)

Prediction 31.63%3.16fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.79%31.63%31.63%32.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.902.903.0538.46%34.48%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.88%27.75%27.75%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.293.303.4531.75%30.44%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Watford (Local): 40.62%; Lincoln City (Visit): 31.63%; Draw: 27.75%. For Watford (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.40, with an expected value of -2.52%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.28%EV -2.52%E -1.05%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.70%EV -3.53%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-28 00:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.28%EV -2.52%E -1.05%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.70%EV -3.53%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-28 00:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.28%EV -2.52%E -1.05%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.70%EV -3.53%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-28 00:29
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -5.77%E -2.49%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 00:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -5.77%E -2.49%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 00:30
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -5.77%E -2.49%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 00:30
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -5.77%E -2.49%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 00:30
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -5.77%E -2.49%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 00:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.58%E -2.86%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-28 00:30
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -6.58%E -2.86%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-28 00:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.20%EV -7.40%E -3.24%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -9.80%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-28 00:30
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%EV -7.40%E -3.24%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -8.91%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.80%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 00:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%EV -7.40%E -3.24%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -8.91%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.80%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 00:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%EV -7.40%E -3.24%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -8.91%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.80%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 00:30
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%EV -7.40%E -3.24%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -8.91%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.80%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 00:29
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -8.62%E -3.83%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-27 20:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.26%EV -10.65%E -4.84%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.63%EV -11.44%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -12.57%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-27 20:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.12%EV -13.49%E -6.33%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.51%EV -12.07%E -4.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -11.18%E -3.50%K -5.08%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-27 20:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.41%EV -14.71%E -7.00%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.64%EV -17.76%E -6.83%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.94%EV -12.57%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-27 20:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.33%EV -18.77%E -9.38%K -18.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.79%EV -13.02%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.88%EV -12.57%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%18.1%2026-10-27 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 40.38%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%13.6%2026-10-27 20:20
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 49.70%2.56I 39.06%NM 25.82%2.70I 37.04%NM 24.48%51.3%2026-10-28 00:55