La escuela de los momios

Watford v Charlton Athletic

Inicio: 2026-04-06 14:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Watford (Local)

Predicción 48.52%2.06momio equitativo
EV -2.96%
Ventaja -1.48%
Kelly -2.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.69%48.62%48.44%51.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.771.901.912.0056.50%52.65%52.36%50.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Charlton Athletic (Visitante)

Predicción 23.75%4.21momio equitativo
EV +6.87%
Ventaja +1.53%
Kelly +1.96%
Crecimiento +0.135%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.28%23.64%23.79%24.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.043.984.5027.03%24.77%25.13%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.73%3.61momio equitativo
EV -1.55%
Ventaja -0.436%
Kelly -0.607%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.64%27.73%27.77%29.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.383.403.5533.33%29.56%29.41%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.75%EV -10.24%E -5.54%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV +6.87%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.135%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.97%EV -1.55%E -0.436%K -0.607%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-06 12:15
ATG (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.75%EV -10.24%E -5.54%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV +6.87%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.135%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.97%EV -1.55%E -0.436%K -0.607%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-06 12:15
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.75%EV -10.24%E -5.54%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV +6.87%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.135%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.97%EV -1.55%E -0.436%K -0.607%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-06 12:15
Unibet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -11.70%E -6.43%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV +4.50%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.060%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:20
Casumo1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -11.70%E -6.43%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV +4.50%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.060%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:20
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -11.70%E -6.43%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV +4.50%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.060%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:20
Grosvenor1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -11.70%E -6.43%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV +4.50%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.060%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:20
Unibet (NL)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -11.70%E -6.43%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV +4.50%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.060%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:20
Bally Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -11.70%E -6.43%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV +4.50%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.060%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:20
betPARX1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -11.70%E -6.43%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV +4.50%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.060%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:20
BetRivers1.81I 55.25%NM 51.53%EV -12.18%E -6.73%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV +3.31%E +0.761%K +0.988%G +0.033%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 13:20
TABtouch1.81I 55.25%NM 51.53%EV -12.18%E -6.73%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV +3.31%E +0.761%K +0.988%G +0.033%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 13:19
LeoVegas1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%EV -13.64%E -7.66%K -17.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV +2.12%E +0.494%K +0.643%G +0.014%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:20
PMU (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%EV -14.12%E -7.98%K -18.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV +0.936%E +0.220%K +0.288%G +0.003%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 13:20
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -0.252%E -0.060%K -0.079%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-06 13:35
LowVig.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -0.252%E -0.060%K -0.079%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-06 13:35
Virgin Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 51.41%EV -13.15%E -7.35%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -0.252%E -0.060%K -0.079%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-06 13:20
LiveScore Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 51.41%EV -13.15%E -7.35%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -0.252%E -0.060%K -0.079%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-06 13:20
Pinnacle1.99I 50.25%NM 48.56%EV -3.45%E -1.73%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV -1.68%E -0.405%K -0.534%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.09%EV -4.60%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-06 13:40
Codere (IT)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.80%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 13:35
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 13:39
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 13:39
GTbets1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 04:15
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -10.24%E -5.54%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-06 07:39
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 48.08%EV -2.96%E -1.48%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 13:35
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 13:35
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 13:20
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 13:39
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -11.26%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 13:37
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 13:40
Betsson1.99I 50.25%NM 47.78%EV -3.45%E -1.73%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.01%EV -5.95%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.21%EV -6.54%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 13:39
NordicBet1.99I 50.25%NM 47.78%EV -3.45%E -1.73%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.01%EV -5.95%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.21%EV -6.54%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 13:40
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.85%E -3.57%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -5.95%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -7.37%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 13:34
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.26%EV -5.88%E -3.03%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.03%EV -7.37%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 13:40
Bovada1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -6.85%E -3.57%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 12:07
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-06 04:13
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-06 13:38
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 13:34
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 48.03%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 13:35
BetUS1.93I 51.81%NM 47.88%EV -6.36%E -3.30%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 13:34
Betclic (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.88%EV -9.76%E -5.25%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.80%EV -9.31%E -2.85%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-06 13:34
Unibet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -10.24%E -5.54%K -12.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-06 13:35
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -3.94%E -1.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 04:15
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 04:14
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -2.96%E -1.48%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 13:40
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 13:35
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 04:15
Bet Right1.93I 51.81%NM 48.18%EV -6.36%E -3.30%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 04:14
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 13:15
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 13:35
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 13:35
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 13:35
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 13:35
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 46.79%EV -3.94%E -1.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 13:39
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-06 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.66%EV -11.21%E -6.13%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.08%EV -16.80%E -5.60%K -8.40%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-06 04:15
NetBet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 48.95%EV -14.12%E -7.98%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.10%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.95%EV -14.03%E -4.53%K -6.68%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-06 13:35
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.66%EV -10.73%E -5.83%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.13%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-06 13:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.48%0.3%2026-04-06 13:40
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.48%0.3%2026-04-06 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33%0.8%2026-04-06 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33%0.8%2026-04-06 13:40
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.91%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.45%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64%1.2%2026-04-06 13:35
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-04-06 09:35