La escuela de los momios

Swansea City v Southampton

Inicio: 2026-04-18 14:00 UTC

Final: Swansea City 1–2 Southampton

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Swansea City (Local)

Predicción 22.73%4.40momio equitativo
EV +2.27%
Ventaja +0.505%
Kelly +0.649%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.16%22.56%22.75%24.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.654.154.204.5027.40%24.07%23.81%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Southampton (Visitante)

Predicción 53.83%1.86momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.812%
Kelly -1.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.98%53.89%53.89%55.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.741.751.8361.73%57.41%57.14%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.44%4.27momio equitativo
EV +5.01%
Ventaja +1.12%
Kelly +1.44%
Crecimiento +0.072%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.67%23.54%23.36%25.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.653.923.904.4827.40%25.53%25.64%22.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet3.93I 25.45%NM 24.70%EV -10.68%E -2.72%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.63%EV -2.56%E -1.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.48I 22.32%NM 21.67%EV +5.01%E +1.12%K +1.44%G +0.072%3.0%2026-04-18 13:50
Pinnacle4.16I 24.04%NM 23.22%EV -5.45%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.95%EV -3.64%E -2.03%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.83%EV -0.849%E -0.201%K -0.263%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-18 13:50
Sky Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.48%E -4.99%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -1.55%E -0.370%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 13:49
Betsson4.27I 23.42%NM 22.22%EV -2.95%E -0.692%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.85%EV -6.87%E -3.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.92%EV -2.96%E -0.715%K -0.942%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-18 13:40
NordicBet4.27I 23.42%NM 22.22%EV -2.95%E -0.692%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.85%EV -6.87%E -3.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.92%EV -2.96%E -0.715%K -0.942%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-18 13:40
Codere (IT)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.96%EV -4.72%E -2.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -3.90%E -0.950%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 13:39
DraftKings4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.96%EV -4.72%E -2.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -3.90%E -0.950%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 13:40
Fanatics4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.72%E -2.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -3.90%E -0.950%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 13:50
LowVig.ag4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -3.90%E -0.950%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-18 13:30
BetOnline.ag4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -3.90%E -0.950%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-18 13:30
Everygame4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -6.87%E -3.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -3.90%E -0.950%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 13:30
Marathon Bet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -7.95%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.93%EV -6.87%E -3.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -5.07%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 13:39
Coolbet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV +2.27%E +0.505%K +0.649%G +0.015%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -6.87%E -3.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-18 12:00
GTbets4.15I 24.10%NM 22.82%EV -5.68%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.50%EV -4.72%E -2.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-18 12:10
betfred_uk4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -1.59%E -0.368%K -0.478%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -6.87%E -3.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 12:00
Bet Victor4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 13:40
SportsBet4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -1.59%E -0.368%K -0.478%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.73%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 13:50
FanDuel4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.08%EV -9.02%E -5.34%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-18 13:50
Paddy Power4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -8.48%E -4.99%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 13:50
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.87%E -3.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 11:00
Bovada3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.61%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 13:38
BetUS3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.61%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 13:40
Winamax (DE)3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -12.50%E -3.25%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.57%EV -8.48%E -4.99%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 13:40
BetMGM4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.20%EV -1.49%E -0.812%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.50%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 10:00
Coral4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -3.10%E -1.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 10:00
theScore Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -7.95%E -4.65%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 12:00
Betr (AU)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 12:00
TAB4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 13:40
888sport3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 13:40
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 13:39
888sport (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 13:40
Mr Green (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 13:40
Tipico (DE)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -10.10%E -6.05%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 13:40
Unibet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.88%EV -9.02%E -5.34%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 13:40
Winamax (FR)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.64%E -3.59%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.39%EV -9.56%E -5.69%K -14.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 13:40
Betclic (FR)3.98I 25.13%NM 22.83%EV -9.55%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.76%EV -9.02%E -5.34%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.42%EV -9.05%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 13:38
LeoVegas (SE)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -3.10%E -1.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.91%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 13:39
Svenska Spel4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -3.10%E -1.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.91%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 13:39
ATG (SE)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -3.10%E -1.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.91%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 13:40
Bet Right4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -7.95%E -4.65%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 12:10
PlayUp4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 13:40
NetBet (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 23.80%EV -17.05%E -4.67%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.63%EV -12.79%E -7.90%K -20.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.57%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-18 13:39
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -3.10%E -1.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -3.10%E -1.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -3.10%E -1.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 10:00
Caesars4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.41%EV -6.33%E -3.64%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 13:38
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.48%E -4.99%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 13:07
Unibet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -1.14%E -0.261%K -0.339%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:40
Grosvenor4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -1.14%E -0.261%K -0.339%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:39
Unibet (SE)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -1.14%E -0.261%K -0.339%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:40
Unibet (NL)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -1.14%E -0.261%K -0.339%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:39
Casumo4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -1.14%E -0.261%K -0.339%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:39
betPARX4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -1.14%E -0.261%K -0.339%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:40
Bally Bet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -1.14%E -0.261%K -0.339%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -5.25%E -2.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 13:40
BetRivers4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.37%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 13:40
TABtouch4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.37%EV -5.79%E -3.31%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 13:40
LeoVegas4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -3.41%E -0.802%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.49%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 13:40
LiveScore Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.17%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 13:39
Virgin Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.17%EV -7.41%E -4.31%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 13:40
PMU (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -8.48%E -4.99%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 13:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-04-18 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-04-18 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-04-18 13:50
Matchbook4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-04-18 13:50
Smarkets4.50I 22.22%NM 21.93%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.13%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.3%2026-04-18 13:50
Kalshi4.55I 21.98%NM 21.32%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26%3.1%2026-04-18 13:40