The School of Odds

Stoke City v Swansea City

2026-08-15 14:00 UTC — Championship

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Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Stoke City (Local)

Prediction 39.16%2.55fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.844%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.04%39.08%39.21%40.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.122.352.382.5047%42%42%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Swansea City (Visit)

Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.880%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.05%31.86%31.77%33.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.882.883.0638%35%35%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.04%3.44fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.807%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.74%29.06%29.02%30.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.163.153.3534%32%32%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -2.11%E -0.844%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -4.15%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-14 18:59
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 38.09%EV -2.11%E -0.844%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.15%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-25 21:20
Bovada2.45I 40.82%NM 39.08%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.91%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.01%EV -4.15%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-20 18:35
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 03:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -4.15%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 07:25
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.88%EV -8.73%E -3.04%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -4.15%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 21:20
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 03:35
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 02:59
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-13 09:55
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.15%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-25 21:20
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-25 21:20
Pinnacle2.43I 41.15%NM 39.24%EV -4.85%E -2.00%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.68%EV -4.28%E -1.42%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.07%EV -4.74%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.26%EV -5.24%E -2.17%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.05%EV -2.69%E -0.880%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 12:25
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.26%EV -5.24%E -2.17%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.05%EV -2.69%E -0.880%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 12:25
Codere (IT)2.41I 41.49%NM 39.64%EV -5.63%E -2.34%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.84%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -2.70%E -0.807%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-26 22:09
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.15%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 18:29
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 07:18
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 03:34
1xBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.04%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.87%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.10%EV -6.48%E -2.01%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 01:04
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -8.51%E -2.70%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 03:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -8.51%E -2.70%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 03:34
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 11:15
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 15:05
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 15:05
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 15:04
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 15:05
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -6.03%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-25 21:17
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -6.81%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -6.83%E -2.33%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -6.48%E -2.01%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 01:00
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.62%EV -6.81%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.92%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.46%EV -9.38%E -3.01%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-13 14:49
betano_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 38.62%EV -6.81%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.92%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.46%EV -9.38%E -3.01%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-13 14:49
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -7.98%E -3.40%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-26 22:09
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.98%E -3.40%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 16:59
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -7.98%E -3.40%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.87%E -4.29%K -6.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-22 10:54
ReBet2.31I 43.29%NM 39.35%EV -9.55%E -4.13%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.89%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 28.76%EV -8.22%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-26 05:10
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-20 18:35
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.06%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-26 05:10
Bally Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 05:59
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 05:59
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
Svenska Spel2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:19
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:30
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 06:49
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 14:40
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.94%E -4.32%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 18:25
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -11.90%E -5.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -5.61%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-26 05:10
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.90%E -5.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -9.96%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-23 14:35
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -15.81%E -7.36%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -12.87%E -4.29%K -6.43%G +0.000%16.2%2026-06-26 05:10
NetBet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 39.46%EV -15.81%E -7.36%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 31.78%EV -15.09%E -5.65%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.76%EV -14.32%E -4.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%17.9%2026-07-22 13:34
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 39.31%EV -15.81%E -7.36%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.51%EV -17.32%E -6.66%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.18%EV -12.87%E -4.29%K -6.43%G +0.000%18.3%2026-06-26 05:09
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 39.92%EV -16.99%E -8.01%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 31.58%EV -14.78%E -5.51%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 28.50%EV -13.74%E -4.63%K -6.97%G +0.000%18.2%2026-06-26 05:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.64%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.94%4.4%2026-07-25 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.64%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.94%4.4%2026-07-25 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.64%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.94%4.4%2026-07-25 14:15
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 38.64%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%6.1%2026-07-23 14:05