Stoke City v Swansea City

2026-08-15 14:00 — Championship

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (10 in analysis)

Option 1: Stoke City (Local)

Odds

2.1546.51%Min

2.3342.95%Mean

2.3043.48%Median

2.5040.00%Max

Consensus probabilities

38.04%2.629Min

40.07%2.496Max

39.23%2.549Mean

39.24%2.549Median

39.29%2.545IQM

39.24%2.549Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 39.29%

EV -1.78%Edge -0.710%Kelly -1.18%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Swansea City (Visit)

Odds

2.6038.46%Min

2.8634.99%Mean

2.8535.09%Median

3.0033.33%Max

Consensus probabilities

31.18%3.207Min

33.28%3.004Max

31.83%3.142Mean

31.75%3.150Median

31.78%3.146IQM

31.86%3.139Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 31.78%

EV -4.65%Edge -1.55%Kelly -2.33%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.0033.33%Min

3.1631.62%Mean

3.1631.65%Median

3.3529.85%Max

Consensus probabilities

27.74%3.605Min

29.67%3.370Max

28.94%3.456Mean

29.02%3.446Median

28.93%3.457IQM

28.90%3.460Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.35 under the IQM model: 28.93%

EV -3.09%Edge -0.923%Kelly -1.32%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Stoke City (Local) ▼	Swansea City (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
betfred_uk	2.50I 40.00% NM 38.09%EV -1.78% E -0.710% K -1.18% G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72% NM 33.06%EV -8.47% E -2.94% K -4.50% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.85%EV -4.54% E -1.38% K -1.97% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-25 21:20
SportsBet	2.45I 40.82% NM 38.52%EV -3.74% E -1.53% K -2.58% G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84% NM 32.88%EV -8.78% E -3.06% K -4.70% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.60%EV -4.54% E -1.38% K -1.97% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-25 21:20
Betr (AU)	2.45I 40.82% NM 38.48%EV -3.74% E -1.53% K -2.58% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 32.51%EV -7.83% E -2.70% K -4.12% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 29.01%EV -5.98% E -1.84% K -2.66% G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-30 02:59
FanDuel	2.45I 40.82% NM 38.43%EV -3.74% E -1.53% K -2.58% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.04%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.53%EV -4.54% E -1.38% K -1.97% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-25 21:20
Sky Bet	2.45I 40.82% NM 38.04%EV -3.74% E -1.53% K -2.58% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.28%EV -11.01% E -3.93% K -6.12% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.68%EV -5.98% E -1.84% K -2.66% G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-06-25 21:20
Codere (IT)	2.41I 41.49% NM 39.64%EV -5.31% E -2.20% K -3.77% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 31.84%EV -4.65% E -1.55% K -2.33% G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85% NM 28.52%EV -3.09% E -0.923% K -1.32% G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-26 22:09
Pinnacle	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.31%EV -5.70% E -2.38% K -4.07% G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56% NM 31.66%EV -5.29% E -1.77% K -2.67% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 29.03%EV -5.98% E -1.84% K -2.66% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-25 21:20
1xBet	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.04%EV -5.70% E -2.38% K -4.07% G +0.000%	2.94I 34.01% NM 31.87%EV -6.56% E -2.23% K -3.38% G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06% NM 29.10%EV -6.85% E -2.13% K -3.09% G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-27 19:20
DraftKings	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.01%EV -5.70% E -2.38% K -4.07% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 31.74%EV -6.24% E -2.12% K -3.20% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.26%EV -7.43% E -2.32% K -3.38% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-29 00:19
Paddy Power	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.36%EV -5.70% E -2.38% K -4.07% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 32.88%EV -11.01% E -3.93% K -6.12% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.77%EV -7.43% E -2.32% K -3.38% G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-25 21:17
Marathon Bet	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.19%EV -6.49% E -2.73% K -4.70% G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13% NM 31.84%EV -6.88% E -2.35% K -3.56% G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06% NM 28.97%EV -6.85% E -2.13% K -3.09% G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-27 19:20
Tipico (DE)	2.35I 42.55% NM 39.14%EV -7.67% E -3.26% K -5.68% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 31.18%EV -6.24% E -2.12% K -3.20% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.67%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-26 22:09
ReBet	2.31I 43.29% NM 39.35%EV -9.24% E -4.00% K -7.05% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.89%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65% NM 28.76%EV -8.59% E -2.72% K -3.98% G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-06-26 05:10
LeoVegas	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.77%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.09%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.14%EV -5.98% E -1.84% K -2.66% G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-02 10:20
Unibet (UK)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.72%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72% NM 31.72%EV -8.47% E -2.94% K -4.50% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.55%EV -7.43% E -2.32% K -3.38% G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-06-26 05:10
William Hill	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.72%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72% NM 31.72%EV -8.47% E -2.94% K -4.50% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.55%EV -7.43% E -2.32% K -3.38% G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-06-26 10:29
888sport	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.72%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72% NM 31.72%EV -8.47% E -2.94% K -4.50% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.55%EV -7.43% E -2.32% K -3.38% G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-06-26 12:09
888sport (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.72%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72% NM 31.72%EV -8.47% E -2.94% K -4.50% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.55%EV -7.43% E -2.32% K -3.38% G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-06-26 12:09
Mr Green (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.72%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72% NM 31.72%EV -8.47% E -2.94% K -4.50% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.55%EV -7.43% E -2.32% K -3.38% G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-06-26 12:19
Bally Bet	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 05:59
betPARX	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 05:59
Virgin Bet	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
Grosvenor	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
LeoVegas (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
LiveScore Bet	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet (NL)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
Casumo	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
Svenska Spel	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
ATG (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:19
TABtouch	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:30
Unibet	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 06:49
BetRivers	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -9.42% E -3.31% K -5.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.32% E -3.33% K -4.92% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	2.30I 43.48% NM 37.41%EV -9.63% E -4.19% K -7.41% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 31.87%EV -14.19% E -5.25% K -8.35% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 30.73%EV -19.00% E -6.79% K -10.56% G +0.000%	16.2%	2026-06-26 09:10
Winamax (DE)	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.07%EV -11.60% E -5.15% K -9.28% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 32.20%EV -11.01% E -3.93% K -6.12% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 27.74%EV -5.98% E -1.84% K -2.66% G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-06-26 05:10
BoyleSports	2.25I 44.44% NM 38.94%EV -11.60% E -5.15% K -9.28% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 31.86%EV -12.60% E -4.58% K -7.20% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 29.20%EV -13.22% E -4.41% K -6.61% G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-06-26 13:49
Unibet (FR)	2.15I 46.51% NM 40.02%EV -15.53% E -7.22% K -13.50% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 31.29%EV -12.60% E -4.58% K -7.20% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 28.68%EV -13.22% E -4.41% K -6.61% G +0.000%	16.2%	2026-06-26 05:10
Winamax (FR)	2.15I 46.51% NM 39.31%EV -15.53% E -7.22% K -13.50% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 32.51%EV -17.37% E -6.68% K -10.85% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 28.18%EV -13.22% E -4.41% K -6.61% G +0.000%	18.3%	2026-06-26 05:09
Betclic (FR)	2.12I 47.17% NM 39.92%EV -16.71% E -7.88% K -14.92% G +0.000%	2.68I 37.31% NM 31.58%EV -14.82% E -5.53% K -8.82% G +0.000%	2.97I 33.67% NM 28.50%EV -14.08% E -4.74% K -7.15% G +0.000%	18.2%	2026-06-26 05:08

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Stoke City (Local)	Swansea City (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets	2.20I 45.45%	2.70I 37.04%	2.98I 33.56%	16.0%	2026-06-26 05:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.20I 45.45%	2.66I 37.59%	3.00I 33.33%	16.4%	2026-07-05 10:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.20I 45.45%	2.66I 37.59%	3.00I 33.33%	16.4%	2026-07-05 10:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.20I 45.45%	2.66I 37.59%	3.00I 33.33%	16.4%	2026-07-05 10:15