The School of Odds
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Southampton v Ipswich Town

Kickoff: 2026-04-28 18:45 UTC

Final: Southampton 2–2 Ipswich Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southampton (Local)

Prediction 42.96%2.33fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.18%42.96%42.96%43.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.172.2450.00%46.38%46.08%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ipswich Town (Visit)

Prediction 30.66%3.26fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.585%
Kelly -0.851%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%30.66%30.66%31.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.053.103.2037.74%32.82%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.41%26.38%26.38%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.503.503.6530.30%28.60%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southampton (Local): 42.96%; Ipswich Town (Visit): 30.66%; Draw: 26.38%. For Ipswich Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -1.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.18%EV -3.78%E -1.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.28%EV -7.39%E -2.45%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.54%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-22 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.17%EV -4.21%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -1.87%E -0.585%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-22 14:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.17%EV -4.21%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -1.87%E -0.585%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-22 14:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.17%EV -4.21%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -1.87%E -0.585%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-22 14:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.21%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.47%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -3.72%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 18:55
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.21%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.26%EV -8.93%E -3.01%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 15:00
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 14:54
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 14:54
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 14:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 14:54
Bally Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 14:54
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 14:54
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -7.21%E -3.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 14:54
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -7.21%E -3.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 14:54
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -8.93%E -4.21%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -6.47%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.99%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-22 14:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -9.79%E -4.66%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -6.47%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-22 14:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.95%EV -9.79%E -4.66%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -12.60%E -4.42%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.41%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-22 15:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -9.79%E -4.66%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-22 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.50%EV -11.08%E -5.35%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-22 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.50%EV -11.08%E -5.35%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-22 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.36%EV -14.09%E -7.04%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.97%EV -18.74%E -7.07%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.67%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%18.0%2026-04-22 15:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 42.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 31.00%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%13.6%2026-04-23 18:55