Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Portsmouth v Blackburn Rovers

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC — Championship

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Portsmouth (Local)

Predicción 44.91%2.23momio equitativo
EV +0.156%
Ventaja +0.070%
Kelly +0.127%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.97%44.96%44.78%46.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.922.092.102.2352.08%47.77%47.62%44.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Blackburn Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 27.41%3.65momio equitativo
EV +1.43%
Ventaja +0.387%
Kelly +0.530%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.57%27.33%27.56%28.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.343.353.7033.33%29.91%29.85%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.67%3.61momio equitativo
EV -3.14%
Ventaja -0.898%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.81%27.70%27.66%28.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.333.303.5032.26%29.99%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Portsmouth (Local): 44.91%; Blackburn Rovers (Visitante): 27.41%; Empate: 27.67%. Para Blackburn Rovers (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.65. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.70, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.43%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.60%EV -8.83%E -4.35%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV +1.43%E +0.387%K +0.530%G +0.008%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 14:55
Betsson🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.60%EV -8.83%E -4.35%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV +1.43%E +0.387%K +0.530%G +0.008%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 14:55
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.31%E -0.364%K -0.504%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.14%E -0.898%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 20:00
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.31%E -0.364%K -0.504%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.14%E -0.898%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 20:00
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -7.48%E -3.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.59%EV -1.86%E -0.519%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.14%E -0.898%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 15:51
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -2.68%E -0.755%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 19:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.05%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.898%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 20:00
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.05%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 20:00
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.17%E -5.09%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.05%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 15:00
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 16:50
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 18:56
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:50
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:50
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:56
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:59
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.85%EV -6.13%E -2.93%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 20:23
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -7.03%E -3.40%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 20:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.25%EV +0.156%E +0.070%K +0.127%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.79%EV -8.16%E -2.44%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 14:41
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.25%EV +0.156%E +0.070%K +0.127%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.79%EV -8.16%E -2.44%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 14:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.25%EV +0.156%E +0.070%K +0.127%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.79%EV -8.16%E -2.44%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 14:40
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.61%EV -6.58%E -3.16%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -8.16%E -2.44%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -7.29%E -2.18%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 16:50
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:45
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:45
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 16:49
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.17%E -5.09%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -5.91%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 17:10
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:41
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:40
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:41
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 14:40
ReBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.20%EV -9.28%E -4.59%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -11.73%E -3.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.08%EV -12.00%E -3.77%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 18:56
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -3.89%E -1.82%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -3.89%E -1.82%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 14:41
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -10.17%E -5.09%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 18:51
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.75%EV -11.97%E -6.11%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -12.83%E -4.07%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 18:56
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -4.78%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -13.65%E -4.33%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:40
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -4.78%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -13.65%E -4.33%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -4.78%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -13.65%E -4.33%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.06%E -3.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -5.68%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -13.65%E -4.33%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.45%E -3.58%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.23%EV -11.52%E -5.85%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.66%EV -13.65%E -4.33%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -14.21%E -4.58%K -6.77%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-12 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.26%EV -13.77%E -7.17%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.33%EV -17.76%E -5.92%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.41%EV -14.21%E -4.58%K -6.77%G +0.000%17.7%2026-09-12 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.40%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.36%13.0%2026-09-12 20:05
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%14.0%2026-09-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 31.78%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.61%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.61%186.1%2026-09-12 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 31.78%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.61%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.61%186.1%2026-09-12 19:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 16:25