La escuela de los momios

Oxford United v Watford

Inicio: 2026-04-11 14:00 UTC

Final: Oxford United 2–0 Watford

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Oxford United (Local)

Predicción 39.55%2.53momio equitativo
EV +2.03%
Ventaja +0.788%
Kelly +1.29%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.57%39.49%39.58%40.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.382.392.5845.45%41.97%41.84%38.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Watford (Visitante)

Predicción 31.78%3.15momio equitativo
EV -2.45%
Ventaja -0.798%
Kelly -1.18%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.85%31.82%31.73%34.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.902.903.0736.36%34.49%34.48%32.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.68%3.49momio equitativo
EV -2.21%
Ventaja -0.649%
Kelly -0.918%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.72%28.69%28.69%30.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.253.253.4134.72%30.79%30.77%29.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.58I 38.76%NM 37.57%EV +2.03%E +0.788%K +1.29%G +0.026%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.01%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.42%EV -2.21%E -0.649%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.34%EV -1.13%E -0.452%K -0.753%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.05%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -3.93%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 13:55
ATG (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.34%EV -1.13%E -0.452%K -0.753%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.05%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -3.93%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 13:55
Svenska Spel2.50I 40.00%NM 38.34%EV -1.13%E -0.452%K -0.753%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.05%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -3.93%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 13:55
Pinnacle2.45I 40.82%NM 39.54%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.55%EV -2.45%E -0.798%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -3.93%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 13:45
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:54
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:55
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:55
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:55
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:55
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:55
Bally Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.11%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:55
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -3.90%E -1.60%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.80%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 13:55
Betsson2.41I 41.49%NM 39.42%EV -4.69%E -1.95%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.25%EV -3.40%E -1.12%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.32%EV -7.09%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 13:15
NordicBet2.41I 41.49%NM 39.42%EV -4.69%E -1.95%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.25%EV -3.40%E -1.12%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.32%EV -7.09%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 13:14
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.74%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -3.93%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 13:15
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.69%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -6.26%E -2.12%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -2.50%E -0.735%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 13:15
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 13:25
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.80%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 13:20
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:20
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 13:29
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 13:15
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -8.49%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.80%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:39
Caesars2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 13:50
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.67%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 13:14
LeoVegas2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 13:55
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 13:55
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 13:55
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 13:55
Codere (IT)2.39I 41.84%NM 39.67%EV -5.48%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 13:20
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 13:18
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 13:20
Betway2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -8.49%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 13:14
Virgin Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:55
LiveScore Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:55
PMU (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -12.62%E -4.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -6.27%E -2.65%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.50%E -0.735%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 03:20
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -6.27%E -2.65%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.50%E -0.735%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 03:20
GTbets2.36I 42.37%NM 40.05%EV -6.67%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.30%EV -4.04%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 03:49
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.55%EV -6.67%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -6.26%E -2.12%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.81%EV -7.09%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 13:30
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.06%E -3.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -6.26%E -2.12%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -2.50%E -0.735%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 03:19
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -7.06%E -3.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -6.26%E -2.12%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.80%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:14
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.06%E -3.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 13:15
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.06%E -3.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 13:15
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.06%E -3.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -3.93%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 03:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.06%E -3.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -3.93%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 03:19
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.06%E -3.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 13:15
BetUS2.34I 42.74%NM 39.35%EV -7.46%E -3.19%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.42%EV -6.90%E -2.35%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -9.67%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 13:34
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -8.25%E -3.56%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.24%EV -6.58%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -9.67%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 13:15
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -8.25%E -3.56%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.24%EV -6.58%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -9.67%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 13:15
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -4.67%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 13:20
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -6.26%E -2.12%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 12:55
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -8.49%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.80%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:13
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 13:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -17.41%E -6.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-11 13:30
Betclic (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 40.05%EV -10.23%E -4.50%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.59%EV -8.81%E -2.77%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 13:40
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -11.02%E -4.90%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 13:39
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.02%E -4.90%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.24%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-11 13:15
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.66%EV -12.99%E -5.91%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.73%EV -12.62%E -4.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -12.54%E -4.11%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-11 13:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.62%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-04-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-04-11 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-04-11 13:45
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-04-11 13:55
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.84%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.99%3.0%2026-04-11 13:55
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.80%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.05%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.15%3.0%2026-04-11 13:40