The School of Odds
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Norwich City v Watford

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 12:30 UTC

Final: Norwich City 3–2 Watford

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norwich City (Local)

Prediction 60.53%1.65fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.60%60.57%60.53%63.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.531.541.6271.43%65.22%65.15%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Watford (Visit)

Prediction 17.74%5.64fair odd
EV +6.47%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.084%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.18%17.71%17.75%19.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.335.316.0021.28%18.77%18.83%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.72%4.60fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.500%
Kelly -0.643%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.23%21.72%21.72%23.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.274.304.5025.32%23.41%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norwich City (Local): 60.53%; Watford (Visit): 17.74%; Draw: 21.72%. For Watford (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.64. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.24%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.18%EV +6.47%E +1.08%K +1.29%G +0.084%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 11:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.24%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.18%EV +6.47%E +1.08%K +1.29%G +0.084%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 11:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.24%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.18%EV +6.47%E +1.08%K +1.29%G +0.084%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 11:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV +2.03%E +0.353%K +0.428%G +0.009%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 12:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV +2.03%E +0.353%K +0.428%G +0.009%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 11:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV +2.03%E +0.353%K +0.428%G +0.009%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 11:34
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV +2.03%E +0.353%K +0.428%G +0.009%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 11:35
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.54%EV -7.99%E -5.26%K -15.36%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -0.629%E -0.112%K -0.137%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 11:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.70%EV -8.59%E -5.69%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -0.629%E -0.112%K -0.137%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 11:45
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.70%EV -8.59%E -5.69%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -0.629%E -0.112%K -0.137%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 11:45
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.70%EV -8.59%E -5.69%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -0.629%E -0.112%K -0.137%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 11:40
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.70%EV -8.59%E -5.69%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -0.629%E -0.112%K -0.137%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 11:40
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -2.40%E -0.437%K -0.534%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV -5.94%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 11:45
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.59%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.40%E -0.437%K -0.534%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 12:15
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -2.40%E -0.437%K -0.534%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -7.68%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 12:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.04%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -2.40%E -0.437%K -0.534%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -7.68%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.15%EV -11.02%E -7.49%K -23.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -2.40%E -0.437%K -0.534%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 12:04
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -15.25%E -10.90%K -38.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -2.40%E -0.437%K -0.534%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -4.42%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 11:45
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.36%EV -3.15%E -1.97%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 17.59%EV -2.58%E -0.470%K -0.575%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 22.05%EV -4.86%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-31 12:15
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.99%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.73%EV -4.18%E -0.774%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 12:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.99%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.73%EV -4.18%E -0.774%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 12:15
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -4.18%E -0.774%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 12:20
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.54%EV -6.78%E -4.40%K -12.55%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -4.18%E -0.774%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -4.18%E -0.774%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV -7.68%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 09:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -4.18%E -0.774%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 06:25
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.57%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.56%EV -4.53%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.87%EV -6.16%E -1.43%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 12:04
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.60%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.56%EV -5.07%E -0.947%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 11:59
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.14%EV -1.94%E -1.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 17.94%EV -5.24%E -0.982%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.92%EV -9.20%E -2.20%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 12:20
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.16%EV -8.59%E -5.69%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.36%EV -5.60%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.48%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 12:20
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.97%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.26%EV -5.95%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 11:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.97%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.26%EV -5.95%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 11:45
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.97%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.26%EV -5.95%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 11:45
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -4.42%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 12:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.94%EV -4.36%E -2.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 12:05
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.99%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 11:45
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -4.42%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 12:20
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 12:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -5.51%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 12:05
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.49%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.65%EV -5.94%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 12:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.99%E -5.26%K -15.36%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.42%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 12:04
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 12:14
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -6.84%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 12:13
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.93%EV -12.23%E -8.43%K -27.17%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.99%EV -7.73%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-31 11:45
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 12:04
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 12:20
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.56%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -7.68%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 12:20
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 12:20
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 12:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 12:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 12:04
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.55%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -10.94%E -2.67%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:20
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 12:04
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -11.28%E -2.26%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 11:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.13%EV -12.23%E -8.43%K -27.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.79%EV -13.05%E -2.66%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.07%EV -14.20%E -3.59%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-31 12:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 60.74%EV -14.04%E -9.89%K -33.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.97%EV -14.83%E -3.09%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.30%EV -12.03%E -2.97%K -3.94%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-31 12:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.79%EV -11.02%E -7.49%K -23.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.50%EV -15.71%E -3.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.70%EV -12.03%E -2.97%K -3.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-31 12:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.66%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.04%EV -16.60%E -3.53%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 12:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%0.8%2026-10-31 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%0.8%2026-10-31 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%0.8%2026-10-31 12:20
Matchbook◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%0.8%2026-10-31 12:20
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.44%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74%1.1%2026-10-31 12:15
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43%1.3%2026-10-31 12:20