Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Millwall v Lincoln City

2026-10-17 11:30 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Millwall (Local)

Prediction 48.78%2.05fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%48.78%48.78%50.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.901.932.0059.17%52.73%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lincoln City (Visit)

Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%24.92%24.92%25.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.643.653.8129.85%27.45%27.40%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.30%3.80fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.22%26.30%26.30%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.6530.30%28.66%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Millwall (Local): 48.78%; Lincoln City (Visit): 24.92%; Draw: 26.30%. For Millwall (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.00, with an expected value of -2.44%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.21%EV -2.44%E -1.22%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.42%EV -4.00%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.21%EV -2.44%E -1.22%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.42%EV -4.00%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.21%EV -2.44%E -1.22%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.42%EV -4.00%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -4.88%E -2.50%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -4.88%E -2.50%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -10.30%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -5.37%E -2.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -5.37%E -2.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -5.37%E -2.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:00
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -5.37%E -2.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Bally Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -5.37%E -2.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.72%EV -5.85%E -3.03%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -10.30%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.26%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.72%EV -5.85%E -3.03%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -10.30%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.26%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 14:01
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -6.83%E -3.58%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.54%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -6.83%E -3.58%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.54%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 14:01
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -6.83%E -3.58%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.54%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 14:01
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -8.29%E -4.41%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.39%EV -5.06%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -6.63%E -1.87%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.16%EV -9.76%E -5.27%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -4.00%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 14:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.90%EV -11.22%E -6.16%K -13.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -5.31%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 14:00
ReBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.38%EV -11.71%E -6.47%K -14.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -9.05%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.13%EV -10.05%E -2.94%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-10 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.94%EV -14.15%E -8.04%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.21%EV -9.55%E -2.63%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 49.15%EV -16.10%E -9.36%K -22.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.23%EV -16.53%E -4.93%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.62%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 50.13%EV -17.56%E -10.39%K -25.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.20%EV -12.79%E -3.65%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.67%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 49.22%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.30%13.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 46.02%3.03I 33.00%NM 26.58%2.94I 34.01%NM 27.40%24.2%2026-10-10 17:25