The School of Odds
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Hull City v Middlesbrough

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hull City (Local)

Prediction 27.19%3.68fair odd
EV +7.66%
Edge +1.93%
Kelly +2.59%
Growth +0.198%

assuming max odds 3.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.55%26.89%27.60%28.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.503.403.9631.25%28.61%29.41%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Middlesbrough (Visit)

Prediction 45.10%2.22fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -3.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.64%45.46%44.80%48.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.062.1251.28%48.93%48.54%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.71%3.61fair odd
EV +0.328%
Edge +0.091%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.85%27.66%27.60%29.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.403.6233.33%29.61%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hull City (Local): 27.19%; Middlesbrough (Visit): 45.10%; Draw: 27.71%. For Hull City (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.96I 25.25%NM 24.55%EV +7.66%E +1.93%K +2.59%G +0.198%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.60%EV -9.80%E -4.90%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.85%EV +0.328%E +0.091%K +0.125%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-20 02:49
William Hill🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV +0.590%E +0.159%K +0.218%G +0.001%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -12.06%E -6.18%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-20 02:49
888sport🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV +0.590%E +0.159%K +0.218%G +0.001%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -12.06%E -6.18%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-20 02:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV +0.590%E +0.159%K +0.218%G +0.001%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -12.06%E -6.18%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-20 02:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV +0.590%E +0.159%K +0.218%G +0.001%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -12.06%E -6.18%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.54%E -2.59%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-20 02:49
LowVig.ag🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.31%EV -2.67%E -0.746%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.73%EV -7.10%E -3.45%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.95%EV -6.60%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 02:49
BetOnline.ag🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.31%EV -2.67%E -0.746%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.73%EV -7.10%E -3.45%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.95%EV -6.60%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 02:49
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -4.39%E -2.07%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -3.00%E -0.857%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-20 02:49
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.29%E -2.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.00%E -0.857%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 02:49
Bet Right🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.92%EV -5.29%E -2.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -4.38%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-20 02:49
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.29%E -2.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-20 02:49
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.29%E -2.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-20 02:49
theScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.29%E -2.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-20 02:49
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.28%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.29%E -2.52%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-20 02:49
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.28%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.55%E -3.68%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-20 02:49
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.28%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.55%E -3.68%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -5.77%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-20 02:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -13.00%E -4.06%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -9.80%E -4.90%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -16.86%E -5.62%K -8.43%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-20 02:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.12%2.4%2026-05-20 02:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.12%2.4%2026-05-20 02:49
Matchbook◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.27%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.70%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.03%2.8%2026-05-20 02:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 24.72%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.73%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.55%3.7%2026-05-20 02:49
Smarkets◎3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%5.7%2026-05-20 02:49